3824 replies to this topic

[Daytrader]

Daytrader,
1. Ti si prognozirao dolar na nivou 1,5 - 1,7 za euro. To je kriza, ali to nije bas neki krah i velika depresija.
2. Ne znam koji su ti licni razlozi da te to toliko nervira. Da li su u pitanju tvoje licne finansije ili tvoje pozitivne emocije prema SAD, pa ti je krivo kada vidis da ta zemlja ima problema?

1. Pa ako prestanu sad da ubacuju likvidnost (16% je sad money supply, u septembru bio, verovatno oktobar i vise), eto depresije. Dakle, nece biti to, bice nastavak istog, i inflacija. Sad je to ekonomija zavisna od dugova. 1,7 za E, pa jel to zvuci ko nesto pozitivno. Kafa u Londonu (soljica kafe) je sad 5-6$. $ index ide ka 68 prvo, pa kasnije ka 50, dugorocno. 75 je sad.
Nafta je 100$ skoro, zito x 2 za god dana, metali rastu, kukuruz, soja, kafa...Uranijum sa 10$ (2001) otisao na 150$. Tu je srz problema...Sto se slab $ preslikava tu.
2. Pa nervira me jer ce posten svet, prosecan da plati cenu toga. Na kraju. I sto kolicina budalastina koje mogle da se cuju, od Fed Rezervi, neverovatna, prosto vredjanje inteligencije, i to prosecne. Eto to me nervira. A ja licno, uzmem 5-10% na futures, dnevno, par kontrakta. Vecom cifrom (tipa nekoliko x BBrother) se uchipio pri 380$/oz zlata. Hteo sam pri 250, ali zakasnio, nebitno zasto. Sledece god ce biti > 1000, 1200 verovatno. Prodacu na 1200-1500/oz. Sto bi se tu nervirao. Apsurdno laka zarada meni tu. Amerika treba da bude pozitivan primer, svima, free marketa, kapitalizma, eto to mi krivo, a ovo ne lici ni na sta. Ne postoji primer u istoriji, da je zemlja koja imala toliki dug, deficit, se izvukla tek tako, bez povece drame... Do pre 20god maltene, USA bila kreditor drugih, btw. Al kad vitez preuzeo...Jos se pravi blesav sad, , to najjaca fora. Meni to fascinantno, to ko Orvel ili sta...lici, e...
Za to vreme, u US kongresu, rece onaj Ron Paul, a kad bio u nekom odboru za finansije- vecina njegovih kolega misli da je
$ pod zlatnim standardom jos uvek. Ma jeste, kako da nije, ali tek sl god, ide zlatna groznica/standard konfekcija u pravom smislu te reci
Peace.

[revolucionar]

Dolar fridoma&dimokracija je definitivno puk'o. Iza njiNog dolara ne stoji dovoljno veliko imanje kao iza kanadskog. Nastampase oni tih novcanica ni broj im se ne zna, a o virtuelnim, plasticnim parama i da ne zborim. Znci kako god se obrnes dupe ti odozada. Pukoh i ja sa njima.

Medjutim to pokrece jedno mLogo ozbiljnije pitanje. Fridom&dimokrasi nece to tek tako olako dozvoliti da recimo Evro preuzme ulogu vodece svetske valute. Imaju oni dovoljno flota, marinaca, konjickih (citaj helikopterskih) divizija, nosaca aviona, taktickog nuklearnog naoruzanja i tome slicno, da bukvalno otmu ono sta im treba i donekle pokriju deficit. KUJ bre sme ista da im kaze. Svi ima samo da klimaju glavom i drze jezik za zubima. I ta Evropa?Europa?Juropa? moze samo da kaze: Ma salili smo se, nikada nama namera nije ni bila da nasa valuta postane glavna. I tako ce Evropa?Europa definitivno da postane Juropa.

Pa izgleda da nisi dobro razumeo istoriju i politiku u zadnjih desetak godina. Samim tim sto su neke evropske zemlje odbile diktat da ucestvuju u Irackom ratu, govori o tome sta te zemlje misle o Americi. Drugo, pogledaj trenutnu situaciju na Bliskom Istoku i uporedi je sa onom od pre dvadesetak godina. Evro moze da preduzme ulogu svetske valute ali samo pod jednim uslovom. Potrebno je da EU uspostavi specijalne odnose sa Rusijom ili da Rusija udje u EU. Samo pod tim uslovima USA dolar bi definitivno puk'o.
Kao i americka, evropska ekonomija zavisi od sirovina i oni dobro zanaju gde te sirovine mogu naci. Po tebi sve je slucajno : postavljanje antiraketnog stita prema Rusiji, problemi u zemljama koje su tradicionalni prijatelji Rusije, postavljanje americkih baza u zemljama koje se granice sa Rusijom, prisutnost americke ekonomije u Kini itd. Amerikanci su ranije vodili racuna o sopstvenim interesima a u buducnosti ce morati da vode racuna i o tudjim interesima. Sto se Evrope tice, Evropa je uvek bila u krizi ili u problemima kad su odnosi sa Rusijom bili poremeceni. Za sada, to nije slucaj a videcemo kojim ce to metodama USA poremetiti te odnose...

[Hromi Daba]

spookysleeper:
"Valjda nece davati svakom kredit. I tu cu se zaustaviti, da ne ispadne kako ja sada branim neku drzavu... "

lol. Pa bas to se desavalo. Maltene su presretali ljude na ulici i progonili ih da uzmu mortgage. Nije bila bitna ni kreditna istorija, ni kolike su im plate, ni da li imaju ucesce, ma nista. Onda je doslo do sloma subprime mortgage trzista: "In Maricopa County, Ariz., which includes Phoenix, houses are entering foreclosure at a rate of more than 50 a day, according to Foreclosure.com"

Mutually Assured Mayhem

"The hedge fund blowup has suddenly thrown the world's biggest financial institutions into a game of brinkmanship that will end in one of three ways: a quick, brutal crash of the subprime mortgage market and possibly the broader corporate bond market; a slow, painful meltdown of one or both lasting many months; or a short-term blip that, over time, will be forgotten as conditions return to normal."

A ovo je samo jedna od crtica u Daytrader-ovoj prici.

[Marko]

Amerika treba da bude pozitivan primer, svima, free marketa, kapitalizma, eto to mi krivo, a ovo ne lici ni na sta.

Tu se slazem. Od SAD se ocekuje da bude pozitivan primjer svima, a i ona se tako pozicionira.
Velika zemlja koja daje sansu svima, open society, free market, primjer profesionalizma.
Problem je sto u posljednje vrijeme SAD daje upravo suprotne primjere i pokazuju se nesposobnima za ulogu lidera u svijetu koju su tako ponosno preuzeli na sebe.

[UrosDC]

Amerika je veliki prodavac magle, zalazu se za kapitalizam dok im ide na vodenicu, dok imaju kapitala i kupuju druge kompanije i diktiraju uslove te kupovine. Usled slabljenja ekonomije i slabljenja dolara, strane kompanije su pocele polako da preuzimaju americke kompanije, pa su se ovi brze bolje dosetili i poceli da donose zakone kako bi to sprecili, sve pod izgovorom da zastite nacionalnu sigurnost. Ukoliko oce open market gde najbogatiji i najsposobniji upravljaju nek vaze ista pravila za sve.

Spoiler! --Click here to view--

Lahde Capital reaps big returns betting against subprime, says banking system a 'complete disaster'
November 27, 2007 5:58 PM ET
By Frayser White

Santa Monica, Calif.-based Lahde Capital Management LLC has made more than a 1,000% return this year betting against U.S. subprime home loans, making it one of the world's best-performing funds of all time, the Financial Times reported Nov. 25.

Managing Partner Andrew Lahde's first fund, US Residential Real Estate Hedge V Class A, soared 712.8% by the end of October and exceeded the 1,000% mark as selling continued over the past month, according to Financial Times, which did not disclose how much the fund made.

Lahde began returning money to investors, saying in a letter, "The risk/return characteristics are far less attractive than in the past." He expects the collapse of subprime mortgage-backed securities to be followed by a collapse in bonds backed by commercial property loans. He is also predicating a deep recession, saying that the banking system is "a complete disaster," and he added that "nearly every major bank would be insolvent" if their assets were marked to market, according to Financial Times.

Site content and design Copyright © 2007, SNL Financial LC

U spoiler-u, jedan od hedge fundova koji je zaradio 1000 % na sub-prime mortgage breakdown, koji prognozira da su sledeci commercial property loans bonds, i kao sto i Daytrader rece sledece su banke.

[Daytrader]

Nekretnine - klik
$

Prica je prosta…Od 40M kuca koje promenilo vlasnike, u periodu 2003-2006, oko 13M su
Sumnjivi mortgage (subprime, Alt-A, high LTv I drugi nejasno smesni nazivi), I dodati milione
Tzv “prime” pozajmice gde je duznik razvukao budget ko Orbit zvaku. Tako da vecina je – pa sumnjiva, eto. Gadan da ne kazem totalni opoziv (a bez Arnolda) je ono sto sledi. Te dve crte sto se priblizile, crvena i siva, ne zna se sta je gore. Do toga doslo jer Vitez smanjio kamate ispod nivoa inflacije, da izbegne recesiju, da se WS boys napune paricama, i da Dubayi ne zapadne los period u ekonomiji. Rezultat je mnogo veci problem.
To sto berza poraste 300p ko juce, nebitno je sasvim. To rezultat radosti sto ce smanjiti kamate. (a inflacija i $, to nema veze ) . Ova dva grafika otkivaju sve, ili realnost. Na WS su odavno izgubili osecaj za realnost.
Praise the Lord, but please pass the ammunition, . Ili, posto Dubaya ima novog ekon,savetnika,
K.Hennessey-a, moze i konjak za sve, zurka sl god.
Svi da vezu pojaseve, bumpy road ahead. (ili - price charge, courtesy of Sir Knight - the Retarded one).
Peace.

[revolucionar]

Nekretnine - klik
$

Prica je prosta…Od 40M kuca koje promenilo vlasnike, u periodu 2003-2006, oko 13M su
Sumnjivi mortgage (subprime, Alt-A, high LTv I drugi nejasno smesni nazivi), I dodati milione
Tzv “prime” pozajmice gde je duznik razvukao budget ko Orbit zvaku. Tako da vecina je – pa sumnjiva, eto. Gadan da ne kazem totalni opoziv (a bez Arnolda) je ono sto sledi. Te dve crte sto se priblizile, crvena i siva, ne zna se sta je gore. Do toga doslo jer Vitez smanjio kamate ispod nivoa inflacije, da izbegne recesiju, da se WS boys napune paricama, i da Dubayi ne zapadne los period u ekonomiji. Rezultat je mnogo veci problem.
To sto berza poraste 300p ko juce, nebitno je sasvim. To rezultat radosti sto ce smanjiti kamate. (a inflacija i $, to nema veze ) . Ova dva grafika otkivaju sve, ili realnost. Na WS su odavno izgubili osecaj za realnost.
Praise the Lord, but please pass the ammunition, . Ili, posto Dubaya ima novog ekon,savetnika,
K.Hennessey-a, moze i konjak za sve, zurka sl god.
Svi da vezu pojaseve, bumpy road ahead. (ili - price charge, courtesy of Sir Knight - the Retarded one).
Peace.

Nemoj da se brines za dolar, pogledaj sta se desava u Belgiji...
Dovoljno je da USA proglasi nezavisnost Kosova i videces sta je EU.

[MAGRIPA65]

SAD ima problema jer FED gubi kontrolu nad kmatnim stopama.Daytrader zna sta govori mada je Amerika vise puta pokazala da se lako prilagodi novim pravilima na trzistu.Zadnjih 30 godina americki recept za izlazak iz recesije je bio povecanje potrosnje a sve se zapravo zasnivalo na poverenju u dolar.Danas dolar prvi put ima ozbiljnu konkurenciju i to je problem za koji ne postoji resenje jer euro postaje ozbiljna konkurencija dolaru.Amerikanci su izuzetno fleksibilni i pragmaticni tako da ce sigurno naci neko resenje za trenutnu krizu kao sto je Regan pronasao resenje za krizu iz 70tih.Koliko vidim i u euro zoni stvari ne idu bas najbolje jer je inflacija otisla na 2.6% a u Spaniji je presla 3% sto ce definitivno dovesti do rasta kamatnoh stopa.Jacanjem eura zbog visih kamatnih stopa EU ekonomije mogu da ocekuju recesiju iz koje su tek pocele da izlaze sto opet moze da dovede do pada eura.
Americka ekonomija definitivno ove godine ulazi u recesiju jer samo u Ilinoisu postoji 150000 forclosures a situacija je u drugim delovima zemlje jos gora.Kineska ekonomija za sada dobro stoji ali je pitanje kako ce se stvari razvijati ako SAD udje u recesiju.U sustini danas imamo globalnu ekonomiju a sve su prognoze vrlo nezahvalne.Samo pre par godina Ameri su tvrdilli da kriza u Aziji nema uticaja ne lokalnu ekonomiju ali se to pokazalo kao velika greska.Moj tip je svajcarski franak.

Edited by MAGRIPA65, 02 December 2007 - 22:50.

[Daytrader]

Nemoj da se brines za dolar, pogledaj sta se desava u Belgiji...
Dovoljno je da USA proglasi nezavisnost Kosova i videces sta je EU.

Ma ne brinem. U Belgiji su i udruzenja skijasa na vodi podeljena jos pre 15god, ne znam ni oko cega, spec novog, se sad konkretno svadjaju. I EU ima problema, ali sigurno je da ce sve vise zemalja prelaziti sa $ u nesto drugo. U meri kojoj mogu, dakle nije to bas sutra, i nije tek tako.
Ima teorija i da evro nista mnogo lepsi nije, fundamentalno...I da subprime problem poveci i u Evropi, za banke.
Bez obzira, globalna ekonomija gde se Centralne Banke tako zezaju, meni nista lepo ne zvuci...
Za Kosovo, pa znam vec to pre mesec dana, ko ce da prizna prvi. USA i sa evropske strane iznenadjenje, ko tacno, bezveze da kazem sad unapred. Znace se uskoro ionako.
Svajcarac, franak, da, to dobro, ali ove azijske ce vise rasti...Kinezi vestacki drze yuan, to stoji donekle, i to ce morati da raste.
Peace.

[Scubius]

Ja bih rekao da je problem u tome sto klasicni scenario "sta se desava kada vrednost valute padne" ne vazi. Tj da ce slab odlazr da namami investitore i povoljno deluje na izvoz iz usa. Toga nece biti jer je vecina usa proizvodnje u Kini.

[Daytrader]

Evo zanimljiv clanak, koji otprilike oslikava uzrok problema -
"In an article last week that examined the troubles brewing in Citigroup's mortgage business, the Wall Street Journal focused on Natalie Brandon, a 51 year old married woman from Granada Hills, CA, who is currently unable to make the payments on her $625,000 adjustable rate home loan from Citigroup, despite the fact that the rate will not even reset higher until June of next year. Amazingly, the Journal reported that Mrs. Brandon bought the house in 1985 for just $105,000, but had chosen to refinance five times over the past seven years, borrowing more than $500,000 and spending every single penny. While this may be an extreme example of American profligacy, it is by no means unique. Unfortunately this type of behavior typifies everything that is wrong with the modern American economy.

Had this homeowner behaved responsibly, as was typical for Americans of prior generations, her current monthly mortgage payments would likely be less than $600 and the remaining balance on her loan would be about $40,000. In eight more years she would have owned her home free and clear, and would likely be on track for early retirement. Instead, after 22 years of making mortgage payments, she is now $625,000 in debt. The article stated that she had recently tried to refinance into a 6%, forty year, fixed-rate mortgage, but it fell through. Even if she had qualified, she would have been obligated to make monthly mortgage payments of close to $4,000 until she was in her nineties.

For years, Wall Street and the media have been singing the praises of the heroic American consumer. To that end Mrs. Brandon could be portrayed as Wonder Woman. She did her part to power our consumer driven economy by borrowing and spending to her heart's content. Her last refinance even allowed her to buy a brand new Lexus. As long as she could find a greater fool willing to loan her more money, there was no limit to what she could buy. As it turned out, Citigroup was the greatest fool, left holding the bag on a $625,000 mortgage on a house now likely worth only half that amount.

Is it any wonder that we have enjoyed such a vibrant consumer based economy when a working class couple with perhaps $60,000 per year of household income can borrow over $500,000 (tax free) and buy whatever they want with the money? As the bills come due and those who have been doing all of the lending finally realize they will never be repaid, this crazy consumption binge will finally come to an end.

As the losses mount, the credit crunch will spread from mortgages to auto loans and to all forms of consumer lending. The days of Americans borrowing to consume are finally coming to a long over due end. Although it seems like science fiction to Americans raised on credit cards, within a few years most will only be able to buy those goods they can afford to pay for with cash."

I da, itekakav je problem. Nakupljen godinama. I mnogo veci od pada $ samo. Ta Gospodja, koju navode, samo poslusala Greenspana, eto, ARM, refinansirala. Poslusala i sefa NY Fed-a, eto kupila Lexus, SUV, onaj 330rx garantovano, jeste lep je, super Problem je sto ipak na kraju to neko mora da plati. Consumers ili Banke, pitanje je sad.
Predlog je, H.Clinton - a freeze on interest rate hikes for adjustable-rate mortgages -- is similar to a plan being concocted by Mr. Bush's Treasury secretary, Henry Paulson.
Sta ce Government na kraju da kupi svaciju kucu? Mislim, stvarno. To upaliti nece, jer - "The problem that was created in the financial system by too much paper can't be solved by printing even more paper. Such a simple solution would defy logic. The imbalances won't go away. The crisis will continue to resurface again and again regardless of what steps are taken to paper it over."
Peace.

[UrosDC]

Spoiler! --Click here to view--

The panic about the dollar

Nov 29th 2007
From The Economist print edition


A full-blown dollar collapse would be disastrous. Thankfully, it need not happen








THE weather may be cold and wet, but in the rich world's financial markets it is beginning to feel like August all over again. Credit spreads have widened and shares are pitching from gloom to elation as investors look to the Federal Reserve for solace. The anxiety is unmistakable. But this time the scare is about more than bad mortgage loans and their baleful effect on the credit markets. America may be falling into recession. And a new fear now stalks the markets: that the dollar's slide could spin out of control (see article).

A full-blown dollar crisis on top of a credit crunch and a weakening economy would be frightening. It would send financial markets reeling and tie the hands of the Fed, perhaps forcing it to raise interest rates even as recession looms. The sky-high euro would soar further, choking off Europe's growth. Political tensions would also rise. Already Airbus has called the dollar's decline "life-threatening" and France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has given warning of "economic war".


At worst, the shadows could darken further. For half a century the dollar has been the hegemonic currency. A large slice of global trade is counted in dollars. Central banks hold most of their foreign-exchange reserves in dollars, a boon for America that has allowed it to issue debt more cheaply. That dominance has survived dollar slides before, as in the late 1970s and mid-1980s. But now, with the euro as an alternative, the fear is of a sudden shift in the global monetary system, with investors switching quickly from one currency to the other.

So far, this remains only a fear. Although the dollar has been falling at quite a lick-down 6% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies since August-it has seen no chaotic slump, but a slide interspersed, as this week, with brief rallies. Americans' expectations of future inflation have not yet risen much. Yields on government bonds have fallen: clearly, investors do not yet expect higher premiums for safe American assets. Whether disaster strikes depends on what exactly is driving the dollar down and on how policymakers react.



Headwinds and tailwinds
Much of the dollar's weakness is driven by economic fundamentals. Since peaking in 2002, it has fallen by 24% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. Given America's need to borrow from abroad to finance its consumption, that is neither surprising nor sinister. By inducing Americans to import less and export more, a weaker dollar helps cut the current-account deficit. For America, the medicine has been working-the deficit is down to 5.5% of GDP from a peak of almost 7%.

If the dollar's decline has accelerated of late, that is largely because of the cyclical divergence between America's economy and the rest of the world. America fears recession; the Fed has already cut interest rates by 0.75 percentage points and financial markets are convinced that it will cut another quarter point on December 11th, when it next meets. When America's growth prospects and interest rates fall relative to those elsewhere, a cheaper currency is inevitable.

But economic fundamentals are not all that is hurting the dollar. The currency is also suffering because the credit mess is concentrated in dollar assets. Investors' conviction that transparent markets and vigilant regulators make America a safe place to store money has taken a battering from the revelations of recent weeks. Net private capital inflows into America seem to have evaporated since the credit turmoil began. The subprime crisis has tarred the dollar as a subprime currency.

In recent years a fall in private inflows has usually been offset by central banks in emerging economies that link their currencies to the dollar. This system (often known as Bretton Woods II) has thus propped up the dollar. But this time these central banks have been less willing to take up the slack. Right on cue, the cracks in Bretton Woods are becoming clear. China is routinely attacked in America and Europe for linking its currency to the dollar. Squeezed between rising oil prices and the falling dollar, the Gulf states face rising inflation: speculation is rife that one or more of them will modify their currency pegs at a regional meeting on December 3rd.



Handle with care
There you have it: the ingredients of a nasty crash. But self-interest and sensible policy can cut the odds of trouble. The first step is for American policymakers to pay more heed to their currency. For all their talk about a strong dollar, American officials have behaved as if they cared little about its worth. A reserve currency is supposed to be a store of value; by running a huge current-account deficit America has left the dollar vulnerable. At such a tricky time, benign neglect will no longer do. For the moment, this need mean little more than some carefully chosen words. If the slide becomes chaotic, it could demand currency-market intervention and a willingness to hold back interest-rate cuts for the sake of the dollar.

The other part of the solution lies elsewhere, particularly with those countries with dollar-pegging currencies. These economies need to allow their currencies to rise, both to curb inflation and encourage the rebalancing of the global economy. Appreciation would mean that these countries accumulated new dollar reserves at a slower pace. That in turn would lead to a loss of the dollar's pre-eminence and the emergence of other reserve currencies: there is no rule to say you can have only one reserve currency. But this need not-and in today's febrile environment must not-mean dumping existing dollar reserves. That would impose a far higher cost on everyone, including the dumpers.

The history of international co-operation on currencies is patchy. But China and the oil-rich Gulf states have ample reason to play their part in an orderly decline of the dollar's dominance. Despite the opprobrium heaped on them, the Chinese do not want to see the Fed's hands tied by a dollar crisis; nor do they want to see the euro zone, one of their best markets, slow sharply; and they have little interest in the external value of their existing dollar reserves plunging. Beyond all that, China's leaders want to be taken seriously as responsible actors in the international system. Now is their chance.





Copyright © 2007 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved.

Ovi stvarno nisu normalni, i pored najava da FED nece vise skracivati interest rates: "the Fed has already cut interest rates by 0.75 percentage points and financial markets are convinced that it will cut another quarter point on December 11th,", i to sve u nadi da ce time spasti dolar i polozaj dolara.

[MAGRIPA65]

Dobar clanak ali je realnost malo drugacija.Doticna gospodja verovatno nije ni cula za Greenspana ali je slusala mortgage brokere i agente za nekretnine.Zbog niskih kamata pocetkom 2000tih cene kuca su rasle u nekim slucajevima i 20% godisnje pa su pojedinci izvlacili efektivu iz kuca (refinance) i to trosili na razne stvari.Banka odobrava visinu kredita na osnovu procene nezavisnih home appraisers i tu postoji mogucnost za manipulaciju.
Postoji i takozvani ruski mortgage.Posto imas pravo da refinansiras nakon 3 meseca onda pronadjes brokera koji je spreman da podeli njegov sales commission tako da pola ide tebi.Ako to uradis 3-4 puta godisnje zaradio si $15-20K i to sve legalno osim sto banke gube novac.
Za jedno si u pravu.Na kraju neko uvek mora da plati.

[Kontras]

Nemoguci su. Kad se desi crash USA ekonomije (to je to sto na kraju neko mora da plati) to ce biti tako starasno da ce zemlja iz ose da se pomjeri. Elem, americki konzumenti su otprilike iscjedjeni za nekih 20 godina unapred. Drugim rijecima banke su im "izbile" ono sto su nekad davno imali pa su im izbili i ono sto bi trebali da zarade u narednih 20-30-50 godina.
Ali oni ne odustaju. Umjesto da se povuce rucna i malo okrene stednji oni dodaju gas na putu totalnog konzumerizma. Pa se desava da ja svaki dan istovarim iz postanskog sanduceta gomilu ponuda za kreditne kartice (City, Chase, B. of Am itd) sa 0% kamatom sledecih 18 mjeseci plus na svaki potrosen dolar dobijes neki solidan procenat cesh back-a, znaci ne uzimaju ti kamate nego ti jos vracaju dio para koje si potrosio da bi mogao da trosis opet i opet i trosi, trosi, trosi...........
Pojednostavljeno receno sve ove Banke su trenutno posrednici izmedju FED-a i americkih gradjana kojima istovaruju gomile naprintanih dolara i pritom uredno biljeze dug koji nikad i niko nece vratiti. Da se razumjemo, ovi dolari se na daju kroz zarade nego u vidu zajmova putem kreditnih kartica. Ljudima su pristupacne cifre koje za zivota ne mogu vratiti ukoliko ih potrose.
Sta ce se desiti? Nakon masovnih foreclosure-a slijedi talas masovnih bankrota od malih, srednjih, velikh kompanija do nize i srednje-klasnih domacinstava. Nakon toga dolazi recesija sama po sebi koja ce trajati nekoliko godina da bi se paralelno sa tim zakon o bankrotu liberalizovao sto ce omoguciti bankrotiranima da se podaci izbrisu te se oni ponovno dignu iz ponora i krenu stasavati u rahabilitovane aktivne potrosace.

[Daytrader]

Nemoguci su. Kad se desi crash USA ekonomije (to je to sto na kraju neko mora da plati) to ce biti tako starasno da ce zemlja iz ose da se pomjeri. Elem, americki konzumenti su otprilike iscjedjeni za nekih 20 godina unapred. Drugim rijecima banke su im "izbile" ono sto su nekad davno imali pa su im izbili i ono sto bi trebali da zarade u narednih 20-30-50 godina.
Ali oni ne odustaju. Umjesto da se povuce rucna i malo okrene stednji oni dodaju gas na putu totalnog konzumerizma. Pa se desava da ja svaki dan istovarim iz postanskog sanduceta gomilu ponuda za kreditne kartice (City, Chase, B. of Am itd) sa 0% kamatom sledecih 18 mjeseci plus na svaki potrosen dolar dobijes neki solidan procenat cesh back-a, znaci ne uzimaju ti kamate nego ti jos vracaju dio para koje si potrosio da bi mogao da trosis opet i opet i trosi, trosi, trosi...........
Pojednostavljeno receno sve ove Banke su trenutno posrednici izmedju FED-a i americkih gradjana kojima istovaruju gomile naprintanih dolara i pritom uredno biljeze dug koji nikad i niko nece vratiti. Da se razumjemo, ovi dolari se na daju kroz zarade nego u vidu zajmova putem kreditnih kartica. Ljudima su pristupacne cifre koje za zivota ne mogu vratiti ukoliko ih potrose.
Sta ce se desiti? Nakon masovnih foreclosure-a slijedi talas masovnih bankrota od malih, srednjih, velikh kompanija do nize i srednje-klasnih domacinstava. Nakon toga dolazi recesija sama po sebi koja ce trajati nekoliko godina da bi se paralelno sa tim zakon o bankrotu liberalizovao sto ce omoguciti bankrotiranima da se podaci izbrisu te se oni ponovno dignu iz ponora i krenu stasavati u rahabilitovane aktivne potrosace.

I ja mislim otprilike tako. Cemu tolika potrosnja, i otkad je potrosnja (70% GDP-a) put u prosperitet...
Sanse za krah, su sad, i pored umirujucih izjava, pa tu >50%. Trziste derivativa, koje jedva da iko prati i pominje,
(derivativi multipliciraju rizik, ne dele ga - vrlo je bitno), za prvih 6m ove godine, sa 414T poraslo na 516,4Triliona do juna. To je
neverovatno npr, 102T za 6m, i niko to ne pominje.
Greenspan - pa jeste, javno je (ima u svim medijima) 2004-te pozivao gradjane da se ARM vise isplati. Masu njih je u crno zavio
time, a nikakvu odgovornost taj ne oseca sad. A, generalno, smanjivanje kamata ispod nivoa inflacije, poziv je za juris bio,
na nekretnine. Uzeti mortgage, fiksni, za kucu, ostvariti svoj san, nista lose u tome. Ali nije to bila fora, masa se
ukljucila u histeriju ma iz cisto spekulativnih razloga, za drugu, petu nekretninu...Ili ko ova, umesto da lezerno otplati tih 105h,
jok, udri po nakitu, Lexusu, putovanjima u Evropu, Havajima i sl...Pa i mi svi bi to isto, Gospodjo, bas ste otkrili mlaku vodu.
Ima mali detalj, a to je - treba neko to i da plati.
Ma dobrana recesija, prolongirana i dobrano pojacana, to ce biti na kraju. I zasto bi neko ko bio odgovoran, kad uzimao mortgage, sad ispastao zbog ovih sto to bili nisu. Kapitalizam za to predvidjen nije, za greske se ispasta, to je pravilo.
Kakav god epilog bio, meni nejasno i dalje sto se krenulo tim putem uopste.
Peace.