Posted 06 April 2003 - 02:21
SA malim zakasnjenjem:
Bolton - Manchester City
Bolton were full value for their win against Tottenham two weeks ago. It is true that the winning goal came in the 90th minute, but it was absolutely what Bolton deserved. They dominated Tottenham during the second half of the game. I see no reason why the improved, highly motivated Bolton side should not defeat Man City, Saturday noon. City are in no man's land, and the City players could have motivation problems, not that that Keegan is likely to accept such behaviour. Both their left wing backs, Tiatto and Niclas Jensen are out of this match, and as Sun Jihai is suspended, Keegan have problems to solve on the left side. Berkovic is still injured. Simon Charlton could be back in contention for Bolton, but basically we can rely on the same line up as vs. Tottenham. Bolton looked impressive at home to Spurs, and strangely enough this foreign based side seems to function as a collective hard working unit - like a typical English outfit! A home win for Bolton, and the price is 2.25.
Charlton - Leeds
It is not that easy to motivate my next choice, that is Leeds away to Charlton (3.50. Well, one reason is the tradition - Leeds always pick up points at the Valley! I guess I fell for the Peter Reid arguments. The new Leeds boss is talking about back to basics for Leeds, a 4-4-2 formation with Alan Smith and Viduka up front, and with Harry Kewell on the left flank. Back to basics means more work effort, as Reid was very unhappy with the work rate of his players, at least in the first half vs. Liverpool. Raul Bravo, Lukic and Okon have all been left out of the side, due to their midweek international excursions, but Kewell, Matteo, Gary Kelly, Duberry and David Batty are available again. Charlton will be without the injured Graham Stuart. Away or at home, it does not seem to matter to Charlton, they maintain a steady level this season, and they still have more wins than losses. They are never really bad, and never brilliant either. What am I striving at? I can see them losing this home match against Leeds, and the price on the away win is 3.50
Southampton - West Ham
I have to say that I am disappointed to see such a limited price on the West Ham win away to Southampton (3.30). I guess all the bookmakers expect Southampton to take it easy ahead of their FA - cup semi final next week. I thought the same, and coupled with the improved West Ham performances lately, it is rather natural to believe in the away win. Southampton have been in real trouble in their two latest league games, and equalizers in the 90th minute both against Fulham and Aston Villa have prevented Strachan's men from losing. They were down 0-2 in both these encounters, so you cannot question their morale. I have to say that the Saints played better football during the first half of the season, not so West Ham, finally back to winning ways again. They have even managed three consecutive clean sheets, against Tottenham, Everton and Sunderland. No big problems in either side, well, Anders Svensson is most likely out of the Southampton side. Despite the price (3.30), I choose to back West Ham.
Everton - Newcastle
On Sunday Everton face Newcastle at Goodison Park, a difficult match to predict and I guess both teams fear this encounter. Everton have been terrific in their home games this season, 9-5-1 this far, and you have to say that the 2.75 offered on the home win is over priced. Everton lost to Arsenal in their latest league game, but Arsenal could never relax. Can any side relax, when Wayne Rooney is on the other side? Newcastle have done everything right lately, but I can not believe that they can go to Goodison and pick up easy points, on the contrary. A home win for Everton, and the price is 2.75.
Manchester United - Liverpool
Man United face Liverpool in an early Saturday kick off, and I wonder what kind of performance we can expect? Most of the big names in these two clubs have been involved in internationals during the last two weeks, tired legs, empty minds and this early kick off! Sounds like we can expect a poor game. Michael Owen is most likely sidelined, due to the back injury form the Turkey game. I suggest two bets - the 0-0 draw and the home win for Man United (1.87).
Stoke - Gillingham
My main suggestion in the first division in England is the home win for Stoke against Gillingham. The price is 2.20. By losing at home to Ipswich last week Gillingham lost the final incentive. They are positioned nicely just above mid table -one of the true positive surprises in this division - but they could struggle in these last rounds. I must say that they looked quite poor last week vs. Ipswich. Despite the home advantage, they were outclassed. Stoke are in a recovery phase, and after three strong 0-0 draws against top sides, they managed to defeat Watford away from home in their latest game. Since the Watford match, Stoke have loaned two decent, or more than decent players, both in line for debuts against Gillingham. I am referring to the old battle horse Paul Warhurst (Bolton), and Akinbiyi (C Palace). OK, Akinbiyi is mostly known to miss his scoring chances, but he looks good anyway. Stoke will be without the suspended James O'Connor. A home win for the highly motivated Stoke side, and the price is 2.20.
Wolverhampton Wanderers - Rotherham
Wolves at home to Rotherham - a sound winner. The price is not that sound however (1.62). I have a feeling that Wolves are marching on and I expect them to finish this season on a high note. Last year they broke down late in the season after some brilliant months, when they outclassed more than one team. Maybe it will be the other way around this time, a rather mediocre season most of the time, but after a great last quarter and success in the play offs, the Premiership could be a reality. My God, now I am really into guess work! Anyway, Wolves look good, and as Lescott is fit again, we can count on the best Wolves line up on Saturday. Rotherham have defensive worries, as both McIntosh and Guy Branston are suspended. John Mullin will probably move to the defence, and on loan Curtis Woodhouse could have first start for Rotherham. Nothing at stake for Rotherham, and they should not be able to disturb Wolves this time. A home win, and the price is 1.62.
Reading - Brighton
I have to take a chance with one of my favourite sides, Brighton, away to Reading. The match is being played on Friday and the price on the Brighton win is outstanding (5.00). Both sides have everything to play for - Reading for a place in the play offs, and Brighton fight for survival. Some 30 points separate these two sides, but Brighton have picked up their game these last weeks, and have the capacity to threaten Reading, the definite surprise package of this division. But Brighton need a fit Zamora. According to the latest bulletins Zamora, Danny Cullip and Dean Blackwell are all in contention for this televised match. Adie Williams is back in the Reading defence, and only Mackie is out, suspended. On loan Glen Little could also feature for Reading. Brighton did everything except scoring at home to Crystal Palace in their latest match, and without Zamora this could happen again. I will wait till I know, but if Zamora is in the line up, I will use the price on the Brighton away win (5.00).
Bastia - Troyes
In France I find myself backing some big favourites. First Bastia at home to the bottom side Troyes, and the price on the home win is 1.70. Sounds like a decent price, if you recall the Bastian home strength. (10-3-3) Bastia drew away to Lille two weeks ago, but this weekend they will have a much stronger line up available, as first choice defenders Franck Silvestre, Uras and Vignal all make their returns. Maurice and Laslandes will play up front. Troyes will be without Meniri, and the two ex- Parisiens L Leroy and Benachour, both suspended. Leroy was the leading Troyes player in their latest match. Regis and Ziani will return for Troyes. Bastia to win (1.70).
Nantes - Lille
Nantes are au complet, fit squad, in other words. Savinaud and Gillet have declared themselves fit again, and only Makukula will not feature at home to Lille. His absence is not that disturbing, as Puyol and Vahirua are the first choice strikers. Struggling Lille miss the suspended key defender Fahmi, and there are doubts concerning the fitness of Tapia and Pichot. Beck and Boutoille are still absent. Nantes are very much in the title race, at home they are 9-3-3, they are injury free, facing Lille 1-6-8 in their away games. You cannot complain about the price on the home win for Nantes (1.65).
Sedan - Montpellier
Thirdly I pick Sedan at home to Montpellier, and the price on the home win is 2.05! Sedan lost away to PSG, 0-2, in their last league match. They gave PSG a real fight, and were a bit unlucky losing by two late goals. Players will return ahead of this game - Jambay and Njanka, plus the fit again Ndiaye and Oulida. Montpellier have their first choice goalie Riou available again, as well as the defender Dzodic. However, two important players are suspended, Rouviere and Mansare. Still no Michalowski. In my book a home win for Sedan, and the price is good enough (2.05).
Monaco - Nice
Monaco face Nice in a Cote D'Azur derby and as Monaco have their young and talented squad fit and able, I cannot see them stumble against Nice. I would not go as far as saying that Nice are free falling, but you have to say that they are heading in the wrong direction. No wonder, as they are newcomers to the French high society. A home win for Monaco, and the price is 1.60. (Definitely not a very good price!)
Pergugia - Bologna
The Perugian home form has been consistent this season, and after 13 games they are 8-2-3 at home. They are facing the hopeless away side, Bologna, on Sunday, and you have to admit that 2.05 available on the home win is better than expected. Bologna are not only lousy in their away games, 0-7-6, they have an overall poor form at the moment. Only Sogliano is missing for Perugia. Bologna should have Locatelli back for this game, but Falcone is suspended. A home win for Perugia, and the price is 2.05.
Reggina - Empoli
Next I pick Reggina at home to Empoli, and the price on the home win is 1.91. I consider Reggina the better side and their home form has been especially impressive - 3 straight home wins, and then the home draw with Milan. Diana is probably out for the home side. Empoli miss the suspended Giampieretti. Only a home win against Piacenza is all that Empoli have mustered lately and I predict that they will be in the relegation zone after this encounter. A home win for Reggina and the price is 1.91.
Inter - Roma
Inter always beat Roma at San Siro and at home Parma have the upper hand against Milan. It is difficult to argue with tradition, is it not? I think that Inter have 7 consecutive home wins against Roma, maybe that is why the price on the Inter win is a meagre 1.95! Vieri and Recoba from the start for Inter, but I should think that old Roma favourite Batistuta will also play some part in the game. No major problems in the Inter defence or midfield, at least as I see it. I do not really know if any of the injured Inter players would find a place in the starting line up, if fit! Roma will also be able to field their strongest line up - about the motivation I do not know. Vieri and Totti seem to be good buddies!
Parma - Milan
The impressive Mutu is back for Parma, and they have no worries ahead of their big game vs. Milan. Inzaghi and Shevchenko are expected to start up front for Milan, with Rui Costa behind those two, in other words the line up that defeated Juventus. No Rivaldo from the start! I am not really comfortable with these two fixtures - I do not like the price on the Inter win, and I cannot really see Parma defeat Milan. I have to admit, however, that the price on the Parma win is tempting (2.85).
Villarreal - Barcelona
Villarreal took an unlikely point away to Real Sociedad two weeks ago. Down 0-2 with only extra time left, they managed to score two goals. I back them on Sunday at home to Barcelona, and the price is more than decent (3.00). Barcelona seldom excel in their away matches, they could have motivation problems, and lastly they play a Champions League quarter final vs. Juventus early next week. Luis Enrique is still out injured, and Gabri is suspended. Villarreal have a complete squad, with the exception of the suspended Quique. I choose to look upon this fight as a typical "motivation" game, and as the great price is on the motivated home side, Villarreal, I find a bet on the home win only natural (3.00).
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