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MAKROEKONOMIJA: Novosti, projekcije, diskusija


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#1 McConnell

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 00:50

Australia's economic growth slows rapidly to 2.8pc

Australia's economy appears to be slowing much more rapidly than expected, after a spurt of growth in the first half of the year.

Then economy grew at its slowest annual pace in two years in the September quarter, well below market expectations.
Key factors in the domestic economy in household consumption and construction were softer than expected
Household income per capita fell and the savings rate the lowest since 2007


Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3 per cent in the three months to September, or 2.8 per cent over the year.

It is the weakest economic expansion in two years and not the result the Reserve Bank would be looking for in its quest to raise interest rates.

The annual growth figure is also a significant step down from the 3.4 per cent growth recorded in the second quarter National Accounts from the Bureau of Statistics.

The result is well below the analyst consensus of 3.3 per cent and reflects weaker than expected construction and capital expenditure data, as well as a general softening in the housing sector.

Despite a strong contribution from net exports and goverment spending, it appears the domestic economy has softened markedly.

The construction sector was a drag on growth while the retail and manufacturing sectors were flat.

Household spending soft

IFM economist Alex Joiner said there's not much good news from households, with spending growth at a soft 0.3 per cent over the quarter and 2.5 per cent over the year.

The household savings rate, as a share of household income, has slipped to just 2.4 per cent.

The savings rate is at its lowest level since 2007, before the global financial crisis, and indicates consumers are digging into their savings to pay for essentials.

"Household income per capita was slightly negative in the quarter and just up 1.2 per cent over the year — hard to see them hit with a rate hike any time soon," Dr Joiner said.

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Living standards are falling: RBC

RBC's Su-Lin Ong said a degree of resilience in household consumption appeared to be at the expense of savings.

"A decline in real net national disposable income per capita [-0.3 per cent] with year-on-year [growth] easing to 1.3 per cent suggest a loss of wealth and lower living standards," Ms Ong said.

ANZ's Felicity Emmett said the persistent weakness in wages growth was a surprising factor in the latest National Accounts.

"The GDP measure of non-farm average wages rose just 0.2 per cent over the quarter following a 0.1 per cent rise in the first quarter," Ms Emmett noted.

"Annual [wages] growth is now at just 1.2 per cent, and slowing.

"Once again, this is a disappointing outcome, and suggests that the tighter labour market is putting very little pressure on labour costs."
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#2 mrblaf

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 17:28

Pomalo pratim forume sa temom imigracija, stekao sam dojam da su Australija i Novi Zeland izgubili na popularnosti poprilicno, neka me neko ispravi ako gresim. Pre 4-5 godina sam intenzivno razmisljao o odlasku down under, no cene nekretnina su mi se i tada cinile nerealnim a sad je to izgleda vec preslo u bezumlje.

 

Ima li novih imigranata, kakvi su utisci?


Edited by mrblaf, 30 December 2018 - 17:28.

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#3 McConnell

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 19:16

Ja cu verovatno sledece godine otici u Australiju.

Sydney je ubedljivo najskuplji grad u Australiji -- ispod $700k za nesto pristojno (sto po kvalitetu zivota ne bi devalviralo kupca) u regularnim delovima grada je lutrija. Postoji svakako, ali vrlo tesko.
Od prustupacnijih delova grada bih predlozio Parramattu, koja predstavlja "drugi CBD" od tri i ona je nesto povoljnija, ali ne preterano. Sydney je koncipiran kao Los Angeles, rastrkan je i ima nekoliko zasebnih centralnih delova (u Ozu downtown zovu central business district) i prvi CBD je najskuplji -- to je deo oko Zaliva i mesto gde su poslovni neboderi, a obuhvata i North Sydney.
Treci, koji obuhvata naseljena mesta oko Liverpoola je najpovoljniji, ali je najudaljeniji i ima relativno veliku koncetraciju srpskih patriota, pa je to dakle ne.

Ako je renta u pocetku opcija (sto je moj slucaj), onda je Wentworth Point najbolja opcija za pocetak -- relativno pristupacno, moderno, cisto i novo, a najbolje od svega je sto je blizu i glavnom CBD-u i CBD-u u Parramatti. Meni blizu zive rodjaci, pa je to dodatni plus zasto sam odabrao ovo naselje za pocetak. Rente se placaju nedeljno, a ne mesecno kako je to slucaj u vecem delu kontinentalne Evrope.

Nekretnine se mogu pretrazivati na Real Estate Australia, postoje aplikacije za iOS i Android i prilicno je azurno i lako za pretrazivanje: https://www.realestate.com.au

Konkretno, naselje u kome cu se nastaniti za pocetak ima najbolji odnos cene i kvaliteta: https://www.realesta...eSort=price-asc

Ako je kupovina opcija, za $500k se moze priustiti pristojan stan u ovom naselju, ali bih ipak kupio nekretninu u nekom drugom delu Sydneya, ukoliko bih nameravao da dugorocno ostanem.

Problem je sto je gradski prevoz dosta los ka ovom naselju, pa otud verovatno i niza cena, ali svakako planiram da koristim auto, pa meni taj nedostatak puno ne znaci. Pritom, u Sydney (i uopste u Australiji) se gradi prvi "pravi" metro, tako da ce za desetak godina dobar deo Sydneya biti pokriven podzemnom linijom.

Melbourne je dosta jeftiniji, kako za rentiranje, tako za kupovinu, izgleda vece zbog restrikcije u visini koja je na snazi u Sydneyu, buduci da je aerodrom relativno blizu i zvanicne projekcije vlade su da ce za 20 godina Melbourne biti najveci grad Australije, ali kako nemam nikoga tamo, Sydney mi ostaje prva destinacija. Dosta cistije i evropeidnije izgleda u svakom slucaju.

U avgustu sam bio prvi put u Australiji i meni se dopalo. Ono sto je definitivno pokvarilo utisak jesu paukovi o kojima sam cuo dosta i pre nego sto sam otisao i uzivo izgledaju ogavno. To je nesto sto dosta kvari utisak o Australiji, a na sta cu probati da se naviknem vremenom. Ukoliko ne uspem, tu su uvek SAD.

Australija jos uvek vazi za dobrostojecu i razvijenu ekonomiju, koja je anglosaksonska verzija Svajcarske, tako da je Down Under uvek dobar izbor.


Edited by McConnell, 30 December 2018 - 21:37.

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#4 McConnell

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 21:32

China's economy had a tough 2018. Next year will be worse
By Daniel Shane, Jethro Mullen and David Goldman
Updated 1247 GMT (2047 HKT) December 30, 2018
Hong Kong
 
1. China's rocky year: China's economy is entering uncharted territory, and that could spell trouble for the rest of the world.
After decades of sharp expansion, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Growth in 2018 is set to be the weakest since 1990. And 2019 looks even worse.
The world's second largest economy is feeling the effects of a darkening trade outlook and government attempts to rein in risky lending after a rapid rise in debt levels.

"The drivers of China's slowdown have yet to have their full impact on the economy, and the combination of both is unprecedented," analysts at Moody's wrote in a research note this month. "This creates a high degree of uncertainty and risk."
 
20181228_China_economic_growth_gfx_large
 
What happens in China matters for businesses and markets across the globe. It's the world's largest exporter of goods, sucking in materials from other countries in order to ship out iPhones, laptops, bulldozers and tons of other products.

The country's rapidly expanding middle-class has turned it into the biggest market on the planet for consumer goods like cars, smartphones and beer, generating billions in profits for companies like General Motors (GM) and Apple (AAPL).

"China has become the world's largest growth engine," said Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia-Pacific economist at research firm IHS Markit.
Fears about China's economic health have already rippled through financial markets. The country's benchmark stock index plunged into a bear market in June and is down 25% since the start of the year. The jitters have also affected markets in Europe and the United States.

What remains uncertain is the severity of the slowdown and how far the Chinese government will go in trying to soften its impact.
The big wild card is how the trade war between the United States and China, which began this year, will play out in 2019.

After imposing heavy new tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods, the two sides are now trying to negotiate a deal by the end of February. If they fail, tariffs are set to rise further.

Meanwhile, the economic hit from the trade war is expected to become more pronounced in China in the coming months, hurting exports and companies' profits.

"Export growth will come under pressure even if a further escalation in tariffs is avoided," Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at research firm Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients this month.
Opinion is divided on whether the two governments will reach a lasting agreement in the next two months. Their expanding conflict is about far more than just trade. It spans China's stance on technology, intellectual property, investment, industrial policy and access to its markets.

Besides imposing tariffs, the US government has this year prevented two major Chinese tech firms from buying important American-made parts, stepped up scrutiny of foreign investments and sought the extradition of a top executive at Huawei, the Chinese company expected to lead the roll-out of 5G technology around the world.
"The path to an eventual truce between the two economic superpowers is likely to be bumpy and prolonged," analysts at investment firm Vanguard said in a report this month.
Along the way, they could do plenty more economic damage to one another.

"The trade war has the potential to hit growth significantly," said Gerard Burg, China economist at National Australia Bank. "But it all depends on how far both sides are willing to push."

The renewed negotiations show China's need "to achieve some sort of deal with the United States to buy badly-needed breathing space in a toughening economic climate," Diana Choyleva, chief economist at research firm Enodo Economics, wrote in a note to clients this month.
A crucial question for China is how its consumers respond to the uncertainty.

The country's extraordinary economic transformation in recent decades has pulled hundreds of millions of people out of poverty fueled a spending boom.

"Household consumption is what has driven the structural growth story in China," said Edmund Goh, a portfolio manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments in Shanghai. "It has defied a lot of the slowdown"
But cracks are starting to show.

Car sales have tanked in recent months, dealing a blow to global automakers like Volkswagen (VLKAF) and Ford (F). And retail spending in general has been slowing, according to official data.
Debt levels among Chinese consumers have been rising quickly, which could add to their reluctance to spend, Goh said.

China is likely to meet the difficulties facing the economy with its trademark approach: juicing activity through government stimulus.
It has already resorted to tax cuts, investments in infrastructure and looser monetary policy this year. Analysts expect more measures in 2019.

Officials could loosen restrictions on the country's red-hot real estate market to encourage developers to ramp up building activity, economists suggest.
But more stimulus measures risk undermining Beijing's efforts to address the deeper problems in the economy, including curbing the huge amounts of debt in the financial system, according to Iris Pang, China economist at investment bank ING.
"The government has shelved reform," she said, and will instead "focus on pro-growth measures."

2. Jobs report: The US Labor Department will release its December jobs report on Friday. Economists expect the report to show that the American economy added 178,000 jobs, according to a survey conducted by Refinitiv. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.7% — a near-50-year low. And paychecks are expected to grow by 3%.
The American labor market is strong. Employers list more job openings than there are people to fill them. But economists predict economic growth will slow in 2019 as the effects of tax cuts and government spending wear off.
The economy added 155,000 jobs in November.

3. One trading day left in December: The stock market is on track for the worst December since 1931. Stocks have one more day left to make up some lost ground.
Stocks often finish December with rallies, but this isn't a typical December. Huge swings in both directions have sent investors' heads spinning. The Dow had its worst-ever Christmas Eve on Monday, only to post its best-ever point gain when trading resumed on Wednesday. Stocks were sharply lower for most of Thursday before roaring back at the close to finish the day in positive territory.

4. Missing data in the shutdown: The partial government shutdown means businesses and investors could miss some important economic data reports.
The Department of Labor is funded through September 2019, so the monthly jobs report scheduled for Friday will remain on time. But both the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau, which belong to the Department of Commerce, have ceased providing updates and can only resume after Congress and the White House agree on a deal. The same is true of the Department of Agriculture, which produces data on crop production, prices and sales.
No major reports are due next week, but international trade figures for November are scheduled to be released on January 8. The Census Bureau had been planning to report on public pensions for the third quarter and residential home sales, as well as more international trade data.

5. Coming this week:
Monday — Last trading day of 2018
Tuesday — Markets closed for New Years Day
Wednesday — Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index
Thursday — ISM manufacturing index
Friday — Jobs report for December


Edited by McConnell, 30 December 2018 - 21:34.

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#5 mrblaf

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 22:31

Australija je uvek vazila kao zemlja sa odlicnim zivotnim standardom za neku srednju klasu, cak i u poredjenju sa US ili UK. No ovo sta se desava sa nekretninama ne izgleda nimalo dobro, bar za tu istu srednju klasu.

 

Za razliku od kuca, u anglosaksonskim zemljama kod stanova cesto imaju gadnih zezancija, bar je tako bilo kad sam gledao za Novi Zeland i US. Na Novom Zelandu je npr. cest slucaj da iako si ti vlasnik stana, nisi vlasnik zemljista i moras da placas lease zemljista stotine dolara mesecno. I u US imaju mnogo troskova vezano za stan, pa te neki ekvivalent infostanu izadje npr. 300 dolara mesecno za noviji stan i onda nije ni cudo sto svi kupuje kuce. 

 

Videcemo kako ce se sve to razmotati kada krene nova ekonomska kriza u narednih godinu-dve dana, negde sam citao da im je gotovo petina ekonomije zavisna od nekretnina tako da ako nekretnine krenu da padaju nece biti veselo. Zelim ti u svakom slucaju puno srece.


Edited by mrblaf, 30 December 2018 - 22:31.

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#6 McConnell

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Posted 30 December 2018 - 23:15

Australija je uvek vazila kao zemlja sa odlicnim zivotnim standardom za neku srednju klasu, cak i u poredjenju sa US ili UK.

 

 

To je jedan od razloga zbog koga sam izabrao da odem u Australiji pre nego SAD, lici mi na advanced verziju SAD. Amerika je prelepa, don't get me wrong i obozavam je -- samo mi je nekako bolja opcija da je obozavam iz Australije. ;)

 

Za razliku od kuca, u anglosaksonskim zemljama kod stanova cesto imaju gadnih zezancija

 

 

Imaju daleko nize standarde u gradnji (izolacija pre svega i jos ponesto), izuzev Britanije. Australija se uzgred sve vise okrece po tom pitanju propisa ka UK i Evropi.

 

Elem, kako je Oz tehnicki drzava-kontinent koji je na kraju sveta, neki problemi koje SAD i EU mogu da zadese, tipa outsourcinga nisu isplativi tamo, jer je vrlo cesto shipping skuplji od isplata vecih zarada zaposlenima, tako da je dosta veca struktura zaposlenih i biznisa uopste sigurnija. Sama ta geografska izolovanost ce je vrlo verovatno zastititi od nekih vecih potresa (kao i do sada uostalom), bas kao sto Svajcarsku ta ekonomsko-pravno-tehnicka izolovanost (ne-EU, ne-eurozone, ne-EURIBOR, ne-NATO, itd. isl.) stiti u Evropi.

 

U svakom slucaju Svajcarska i Australija su najsigurniji bet if you ask me.

Hipotekarni mehur postoji, ali mislim da ce biti amortizovan. U Sydney je npr. trenutno gradjevinski boom, a po recima poznavalaca (skyscrapercity) prvi put posle nekoliko decenija, u Sydneyu se gradi vise rezidentalnih zgrada od single-family homes, sto znaci da trziste (verovatno podupreto city councilom) koriguje samo sebe, jer se time grad razvija vertikalno, dakle omogucava se da vise ljudi sebi priusti nekretninu u boljim naseljima po pristupacnijim cenama, jer je vise konkurencije koja gradi vise zgrada u okolini, cime je vise nekretnina dostupno na istom ili slicnom mestu, pa ce cene (median, mean, average) stoga biti korigovane ka dole. Pritom ovo je nacin da se grad urbanizuje i zastiti od sprawlinga kakav je Oz preuzeo od Amerike pre jednog stoleca, pa se ovim procesom gustina stanovnistva povecava, a uporedno i broj rezidentalnih jedinica po metru kvadratnom, sto tehnicki moze i da poveca cene, jer efekat prvog (vise stanovnika = veca traznja) moze da potire efekat drugog (vise je jedinica dostupno na trzistu, ali cene mogu biti bas povecane zbog povecanje potraznje) i vice-versa, ali generalno je dugorocni trend da cene u takvim uslovima ipak padaju dole.

 

Videcemo kako ce se sve to razmotati kada krene nova ekonomska kriza u narednih godinu-dve dana, negde sam citao da im je gotovo petina ekonomije zavisna od nekretnina tako da ako nekretnine krenu da padaju nece biti veselo.

 

 

Dobar deo GDP-a cine i prirodni resursi, odnosno izvoz istih, posebno prema Kini. Trenutno mi se ne da traziti podatke, ali znam da je doprinos resursa dosta visok, sto nije zdravo ni ekonomski ni geopoliticki.

 

Medjutim, u prici su velika infrastrukturna ulaganja (subway, high speed rail, novi i moderniji aerodromi), koja donose velike prinose (multiplikator). George Soros je 2013. ili nesto slicno, u Davosu rekao da se svaki dolar ulozen u infrastrukturu razvijenog sveta vraca u proseku sa 3 dolara zarade, a Australija trenutno prolazi kroz najveci infrastrukturni boom u svojoj istoriji. Pritom je, kao i Svajcarska, ekonomija zasnovana na know-how (ovo moze da doprinese velikoj amortizaciji, utoliko vise sto je anglofona drzava), nisu upleteni toliko u medjunarodne konflikte, tako da imaju puno bolje karte u rukama od vecine razvijenog sveta.

 

Zelim ti u svakom slucaju puno srece.

 

 

Hvala. :+1:


Edited by McConnell, 31 December 2018 - 07:25.

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#7 McConnell

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 15:34

Kao sto rekoh:

 

Aussie house prices suffer biggest plunge in 10 years
14 hours ago

Australian property prices fell 4.8 percent in 2018, marking this biggest calendar-year drop since the Global Financial Crisis.

 

T2aSekh.jpg

New figures released today by property analytics firm CoreLogic reveal the weakest housing market conditions since 2008 as quarter-on-quarter decline sin Sydney and Melbourne drag down the national average.

Four of the nation’s eight capital cities recorded a decline in dwelling values, with Sydney falling the hardest (down 8.9 percent) followed by Melbourne (down 7 percent), Perth (down 4.7 percent) and Darwin (down 1.5 percent).

The brightest light of 2018 was the regional acres of Tasmania, where property prices shot up by 9.9 percent over the last calendar year.

In the capital of Hobart property prices continued to climb, capping off 12 months of growth with an 8.7 percent increase in house prices.

Brisbane (up 0.2 percent), Adelaide (up 1.3 percent) and Canberra (up 3.3 percent) all recorded modest increases.

CoreLogic’s head of research Tim Lawless said despite the heavy falls in Sydney and Melbourne, the tightening up of credit from the major banks was dragging down property values across the nation.

“Although Australia’s two largest cities are the primary drivers for the weaker national reading, most regions around the country have reacted to tighter credit conditions by recording weaker housing market results relative to 2017,” said Mr Lawless.

Despite recording a near 10 percent fall, Sydney remains the most expensive city in the country with a median dwelling value of $808,494 – which factors in both free-standing homes and apartments.

In second place is Melbourne, where the median value of a dwelling now sits at $645,123, followed by Canberra with $601,275 and then Brisbane, where the average property will set you back $493,568.

The cheapest capital city in Australia to buy a property is now Darwin, where the median value has fallen to $416,149.

Looking ahead to the next twelve months Mr Lawless said he expected property prices to continue to fall over 2019 as many of the major cities become a buyer’s market.

“With a federal election likely to be held sometime in May, we may see a further negative impact on confidence, especially amongst investors who will be impacted by changes to taxation policy should there be a change of government,” Mr Lawless said.

“On a positive note, interest rates are set to remain close to historic lows and migration is likely to remain high (albeit lower than last year) which will help to keep a floor under housing demand.

“With stock levels remaining elevated, buyers will be in the driver’s seat when it comes to choosing a property and negotiating on price.

“Conversely, vendors will need to be cognisant of market conditions and set their price expectations and marketing strategies accordingly.”
Australian Dwelling Values of 2018
 

 

 


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#8 McConnell

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Posted 02 January 2019 - 21:00

Japan economy shrinks most in 4 years as global risks hit biz spending

The Japanese economy contracted the most in over four years in the third quarter as companies slashed spending, threatening to chill the investment outlook in 2019 as the export-reliant nation grapples with slowing global growth and trade frictions.

The slump in the world's third-biggest economy adds to signs elsewhere in Asia and Europe of weakening momentum, with recent data in China and Australia showing a slowdown in growth and stoking concerns about the wider impact of the Sino-US trade war.

Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) shrank at an annualised rate of 2.5 per cent in the July-September quarter - the worst downturn since the second quarter of 2014 - from 2.8 per cent growth in Q2, revised data from the Cabinet Office showed.

The slide, in part driven by a series of natural disasters that forced factories to cut production, was deeper than an initial estimate of a 1.2 per cent contraction and against economists' median forecast for a 1.9 per cent decline.

The capital expenditure component of GDP fell a sharp 2.8 per cent from Q2, worse than the expected 1.6 per cent decline and the preliminary reading of a 0.2 per cent drop.

That was the biggest decrease since Q3 of 2009, as wholesalers, retailers, and information and communications machinery cut spending, the Cabinet Office data showed.

"Capex is decelerating in areas such as all-purpose machinery, production equipment and automobiles," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

"Depending on extent of global slowdown and trade frictions, companies may put off their bullish spending plans or even make adjustments from the latter half of this fiscal year onwards."

That risk - of businesses cutting back on spending - is a worry for policymakers who are counting on capital expenditure to boost growth and inflation.

Capex has been a bright spot in the economy since late 2016, underpinned by investment in automation and labour-saving technology to cope with labour shortages.

The capex slump is particularly worrying as it comes at a time of cooling global growth, a rising tide of protectionism and slowing company profits, all of which are putting a damper on business confidence.

Japanese manufacturers' mood soured for a second straight month in December and is seen slipping further, a Reuters monthly poll showed on Thursday, pointing to declines in the central bank's key tankan survey due out Dec 14.

While analysts expect the economy to stage a rebound in the current quarter as factories lift production following the natural disasters, there are worries the Sino-US trade war could crimp global growth and hurt export-led Japan.

In October, Japanese robot maker Fanuc Corp - which is highly exposed to the China market - slashed its outlook for the full year, citing slower technology spending and trade friction.

Earnings growth at other Japanese manufacturers is also being crimped by the US-China trade dispute, with Yaskawa Electric Corp, and Canon Inc among companies that downgraded their profit forecasts, reflecting cooling demand.

The revised GDP figure translates into quarter-on-quarter contraction of 0.6 per cent in real, price-adjusted terms, against a preliminary reading of a 0.3 per cent slide and economists' median estimate of a 0.5 per cent decline.

Private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 per cent of GDP, fell 0.2 per cent in July-September from the previous three months, versus 0.1 per cent drop seen in the initial estimate.

Domestic demand shaved 0.5 percentage points off the revised GDP figure, while net exports - or exports minus imports - contributed minus 0.1 percentage point.

Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute, said that global headwinds suggest business spending is on the verge of "levelling off".

"There may be a rebound in capex, but it cannot be a driver of the economy in the coming year, given growing uncertainty in the face of trade frictions, global economic slowdown and a planned sales tax hike at home."

 


Edited by McConnell, 02 January 2019 - 21:01.

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#9 blond

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 07:00

Pomalo pratim forume sa temom imigracija, stekao sam dojam da su Australija i Novi Zeland izgubili na popularnosti poprilicno, neka me neko ispravi ako gresim. Pre 4-5 godina sam intenzivno razmisljao o odlasku down under, no cene nekretnina su mi se i tada cinile nerealnim a sad je to izgleda vec preslo u bezumlje.

 

Ima li novih imigranata, kakvi su utisci?

 

 

Cene su u medjuvremenu pale, nema bezumlja ( sto ne znaci da nekretnine nisu, i dalje, skupe ). Kupci su u povoljnijem polozaju od prodavaca ali su banke prilicno poostrile kriterijume za odobravanje kredita pa nema mnogo kupaca. Plus, manje stranih kupaca, takodje.

 

Australija jeste izgubila na popularnosti jer je, izmedju ostalog, u poslednjih par godina doslo do izmene nekih imigracionih regulativa koje otezavaju prelazak sa radne vize na permanentnu, sto je bio veliki razlog za dolazak mnogih skilled stranaca.


Edited by blond, 03 January 2019 - 07:38.

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#10 blond

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 07:26

 

Hipotekarni mehur postoji, ali mislim da ce biti amortizovan. U Sydney je npr. trenutno gradjevinski boom, a po recima poznavalaca (skyscrapercity) prvi put posle nekoliko decenija, u Sydneyu se gradi vise rezidentalnih zgrada od single-family homes, sto znaci da trziste (verovatno podupreto city councilom) koriguje samo sebe, jer se time grad razvija vertikalno, dakle omogucava se da vise ljudi sebi priusti nekretninu u boljim naseljima po pristupacnijim cenama, jer je vise konkurencije koja gradi vise zgrada u okolini, cime je vise nekretnina dostupno na istom ili slicnom mestu, pa ce cene (median, mean, average) stoga biti korigovane ka dole. Pritom ovo je nacin da se grad urbanizuje i zastiti od sprawlinga kakav je Oz preuzeo od Amerike pre jednog stoleca, pa se ovim procesom gustina stanovnistva povecava, a uporedno i broj rezidentalnih jedinica po metru kvadratnom, sto tehnicki moze i da poveca cene, jer efekat prvog (vise stanovnika = veca traznja) moze da potire efekat drugog (vise je jedinica dostupno na trzistu, ali cene mogu biti bas povecane zbog povecanje potraznje) i vice-versa, ali generalno je dugorocni trend da cene u takvim uslovima ipak padaju dole.

 

 

Dobar deo GDP-a cine i prirodni resursi, odnosno izvoz istih, posebno prema Kini. Trenutno mi se ne da traziti podatke, ali znam da je doprinos resursa dosta visok, sto nije zdravo ni ekonomski ni geopoliticki.

 

Medjutim, u prici su velika infrastrukturna ulaganja (subway, high speed rail, novi i moderniji aerodromi), koja donose velike prinose (multiplikator). George Soros je 2013. ili nesto slicno, u Davosu rekao da se svaki dolar ulozen u infrastrukturu razvijenog sveta vraca u proseku sa 3 dolara zarade, a Australija trenutno prolazi kroz najveci infrastrukturni boom u svojoj istoriji. Pritom je, kao i Svajcarska, ekonomija zasnovana na know-how (ovo moze da doprinese velikoj amortizaciji, utoliko vise sto je anglofona drzava), nisu upleteni toliko u medjunarodne konflikte, tako da imaju puno bolje karte u rukama od vecine razvijenog sveta.

 

 

Hvala. :+1:

 

Doprinos resursa ce se samo povecati narednih godina imajuci u vidu da se najavljuju ekspanzicioni mining/oil&gas projekti, uglavnom u WA, vecina njih su trenutno u  'front end engineering design' fazi i ocekuje se pocetak nekoliko njih tokom 2019. ( svaki projekat zahteva po par hiljada radnika za izgradnju, plus par stotina kasnije tokom operacija ).

 

Nisam siguran za ovo know-how, neki najavljuju shortage of skilled workforce ponovo, hiljade su napustile Perth/WA i trbuhom za kruhom presle na istocnu obalu.


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#11 McConnell

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Posted 03 January 2019 - 14:50

Bas sam procitao pre nekoliko nedelja/mesec-dva da Oz ima hronican problem migracija iz manjih gradova i sredina ka vecim, prvenstveno ka Sydneyu i Melbourneu, tako da vlada planira da omoguci lakse dobijanje rezidentalnih viza ukoliko se imigranti odluce na manje sredine, odnosno ukoliko se presele u druge manje gradove.
 

Australia plans to restrict some new migrants from living in its largest cities - Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane - for "at least a few years", a government minister said, in an effort to ease urban congestion and encourage skilled workers into struggling towns.

With immigration expected to be an issue in the next election, the plan aims to help ease infrastructure problems in cities struggling with population pressures. Critics worry the proposed new visa rules could lead to labour shortages.

Nearly 70 per cent of the 186,000 migrants who settled in Australia last year arrived on skilled migrant visas, and nearly all moved to Sydney or Melbourne, according to government data.

There are currently no limits on where individuals can settle after they receive a skilled migrant visa.

The new plan would affect the roughly 40 per cent of migrants who have the desired skills and are looking for work on arrival. It would class five cities - Darwin, Perth, Hobart, Adelaide and Canberra - as regional centres for migrants to settle in.

 

https://www.telegrap...st-rural-areas/

 
Sto se tice knowledge economy, na desetom mestu je u svetu (ekonomski adaptivno, KEI), odmah iza SAD, a ispred Nemacke, Austrije, Japana, Spanije, Hong Konga, Novog Zelanda, Italije, isl.
 
https://en.wikipedia...exes_by_country
 

Ako uzmemo iskljucivo know-how kao orijentir (KI), bez ekonomske adaptacije i utilizacije znanja na okruzenje, onda je sesta u svetu, iza skandinavskih zemalja i Holandije.

 

Shortage of skilled workforce u razvijenim zemljama poput Australije (ili SAD, Kanade, razvijenijih EU zemalja) je u principu pretezno znak da se ekonomija razvija i da usvaja nove tehnologije*, pa trpi izvesne promene. Mi danas zivimo u vremenu najvecih tehnoloskih i uopste civilizacijskih promena nakon industrijske revolucije i deficit odredjenih zanimanja ce biti new normal za dobar deo ekonomija u svetu.

 

*naravno i znak lose demografije, nedovoljne inrolizacije ka univerzitetima, isl.


Edited by McConnell, 03 January 2019 - 16:40.

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#12 McConnell

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Posted 04 January 2019 - 21:17

US adds 312,000 jobs in December, far surpassing expectations
US economy smashes jobs expectations – as it happened
5h ago 15:17

The US added 312,000 jobs in December, a huge rise well above forecasts that came amid volatile stock markets, a government shutdown and signs the economy is slowing.

Economists had been expecting the US to add about 180,000 new jobs in December, up from November’s 155,000 jobs.

The US has now added jobs for 99 consecutive months – the longest streak of job creation since records began. Numbers for November and October were also revised up by a total of 58,000. The economy added 2.64m jobs over 2018, the third best year for job growth since the recession a decade ago.

Over the year, employers added an average of 220,000 jobs a month in 2018, the best growth since 2015.

There was good news for workers on wages, too. Average hourly earnings climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% from November and were up 3.2% from a year earlier, their largest gain since 2008.

Wages have lagged behind the recovery in the jobs market since the end of the last recession. But while the latest rise will be a boon to workers it will also stoke fears of further interest rate rises this year – a scenario that has rattled stock markets in recent months.

But US stock markets rose on the jobs report with investors seeing the strong numbers as evidence that the US economy is still expanding. Markets were further cheered by comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell who signaled that the Fed was willing to stop raising rates if there were signs of a slowdown.

“We will be prepared to adjust policy quickly and flexibly and use all of our tools to support the economy should that be appropriate,” Powell told a conference in Atlanta. the Fed chair – who has been harshly criticized by Trump – also said he would not resign even if the president asked him to. The possible – unprecedented – ousting of the Fed chair had also unnerved investors.

On Wednesday, ADP, the US’s largest payroll supplier, said private sector employers added 271,000 jobs in December, the largest gain in almost two years. That rise came despite the trade war between the US and China and months of losses on the US stock markets.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, which helps compile ADP’s report, said: “Businesses continue to add aggressively to their payrolls despite the stock market slump and the trade war. Favorable December weather also helped lift the job market. At the current pace of job growth, low unemployment will get even lower.”

 

Valja istaci da su sve cesce i glasnije prognoze da ce SAD ipak uci u recesiju u 2019. godini.


Edited by McConnell, 04 January 2019 - 21:23.

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#13 McConnell

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 18:14

Ovo mi mirise na jacu propagandu, ali u svetlu trenutnih desavanja neka stoji:

 

UK economy to slip to seventh biggest in world in 2019 - PwC

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain risks slipping from being the world’s fifth-biggest economy to its seventh-largest next year, when it is due to leave the European Union, with France and India on course to overtake it, accountancy firm PwC said.

PwC projected economic growth in 2019 of 1.6 percent for Britain — assuming the country manages to avoid the shock of a no-deal Brexit in March — versus 1.7 percent for France and 7.6 percent for India.

“The UK and France have regularly alternated in having the larger economy, but subdued growth in the UK in 2018 and again in 2019 is likely to tip the balance in France’s favour,” PwC economist Mike Jakeman said.

The ranking is based on the size of national economies in U.S. dollar terms.

Britain’s economy slowed and the value of the pound slumped after the 2016 Brexit referendum decision to leave the EU.

“India is the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with an enormous population, favourable demographics and high catch-up potential due to low initial GDP (gross domestic product) per head,” Jakeman said.

“It is all but certain to continue to rise in the global GDP league table in the coming decades.”

PwC expects India to rise to fifth place next year from seventh, and France to remain at sixth.

 


Edited by McConnell, 06 January 2019 - 18:15.

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#14 McConnell

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 17:38

The Economy Is Finally Coming Through for U.S. Workers

Decent wage gains are showing up in paychecks. That should continue for a while.

After two years of workers seeing modestly bigger paychecks, it looks like we are now in that part of the business cycle when steady and large gains show up. More evidence for this could be found in the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Workers had an average gain in hourly wages of 3.2 percent in December, well above the average of 2.4 percent during the past five years, as the chart below shows. More gains probably are on the way.

CVmJYgv.png

In 2018, 18 states raised their minimum wages. In addition, 22 cities similarly raised wages.

This year, there will be even more regions with higher paychecks — 19 states, plus 21 cities and counties, are raising pay floors. 1 Some of these wage increases are the result of scheduled, incremental increases set by states in earlier years. A few states had ballot initiatives that voters approved to raise wages. And 17 states have their minimum wages indexed to inflation, 2 meaning an annual increase will occur automatically following any year when the consumer price index (CPI) rises. Meanwhile, New York City was the first locale to set a minimum wage for Uber and Lyft drivers.

Competition for workers: Even without minimum-wage legislation, companies are aggressively competing for workers. To do so, they are raising pay for starting workers. This often leads to workers with more seniority seeing increases as well.

Costco raised its minimum to $14 an hour; Target went to $12 and Walmart to $11. 3 Disney reached a deal with its unions for a $15 an hour minimum wage at Disneyland in California for this year, though that higher rate won’t reach Disney World Florida until 2021.

But it was Amazon that made headlines in October when it said it was raising its hourly minimum for all U.S. workers to $15. The move affected 250,000 employees, plus 100,000 seasonal holiday workers.

Job-openings ratio: In 2009, there were 6.6 job seekers for each opening. Today, there is less than one person looking for work for each opening, meaning there are more vacant positions than there are job seekers. The law of supply and demand states when a service is in limited supply — in this case labor — then the cost — wages — should rise.

Getting off the sidelines: As we noted last year, companies need “to find ways — again with higher pay and the like — to bring those who have left the labor force back into the fold. This latter option may be the more intriguing: The labor force participation rate of 62.7 percent of working-age Americans is at lows not seen since the late 1970s, but for the past couple of years has shown signs of bottoming.”

That seems to be happening now. The most recent BLS report saw the unemployment rate rise to 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent — but not because people were being fired. Instead, about 260,000 people, probably a good number of whom had abandoned the job market, entered the labor pool. And the labor force participation rate of 63.1 matches the highest rate in the past five years, as the chart below shows. Higher salaries probably are the main reason for this.
 
H3tdnmh.png

There is little or no evidence that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had much of an impact on wages — and certainly workers haven’t seen the absurd $4,000 per employee windfall President Donald Trump’s economic advisers and political allies made before the tax cut was passed by Congress. As my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Noah Smith observed, there are no signs that tax cuts are trickling down to workers’ real wages. This isn’t a surprise, since the tax cut was geared to give companies and the wealthy the most of the breaks.

The economic benefits of increased wages are well understood: real estate, travel, durable goods, retail sales will likely rise, leading to commensurately higher corporate profits. We might even see increased savings for retirement and paying down debt. All of this adds up to higher living standards for Americans.

And yet, there are some negatives. Labor is a corporate expense, and rising wages might put pressure on profits in some industries. Perhaps the biggest impact is on inflation. That’s something the Federal Reserve must grapple with. Although there are few signs of a serious uptick in inflation, the Fed is committed to making sure it doesn’t rise faster than it would like. Those higher rates will raise borrowing costs, thus creating a potential headwind for the stock market. As we’ve seen in the past few weeks amid wild swings in the major market indexes, traders and investors are trying to anticipate how much of drag higher rates will pose.

In the meantime, everyone should be pleased that workers are finally getting some decent raises.

The states raising their minimums are Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Washington.

Those are: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington, and Washington, D.C.

It is challenging to make head-to-head comparisons due to regional variations in pay scales.

 


Edited by McConnell, 07 January 2019 - 17:38.

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#15 mrblaf

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Posted 07 January 2019 - 21:18

Zaposlenost i trziste rada uvek najbolje izgleda upravo pred krizu, sive zone na sledecem grafu su recesije:

 

https://fred.stlouis.../series/UNRATE/


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