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Zalazak Crnog Sunca


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#376 alexnikolic

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 13:52

Sto se mene tice - ajde mi da prezivimo sledecih 5 godina, a za naftu cemo lako :lol+:

#377 brusli

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 13:54

Ajd da te isparavim, nafte nece nikad nestati, uvek ce se naci po koji zaostao barel...

Slabo si ti shvatio ova prethodna izlaganja...

Glavno pitanje nije kad ce nafta nestati, vec koji ce biti troskovi eksploatacije i krajnja cena.

#378 balu

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 15:07

Ajd da te isparavim, nafte nece nikad nestati, uvek ce se naci po koji zaostao barel...

Slabo si ti shvatio ova prethodna izlaganja...

Glavno pitanje nije kad ce nafta nestati, vec koji ce biti troskovi eksploatacije i krajnja cena.


Rekoh vam optimisticka prognoza svakih 10 godina dupla cena. Trenutno 1bbl je oko 90 US$, znaci:

2020. . 180$; 2030. . 360$; 2040. . 720$; 2050. . 1440$ itd.

To je dobro jer drugacije ne moze da se smanji potrosnja. Na zalost uticace i na cenu hrane, sto nije bas zdravo. Zato intenzivno odrzavajte veze sa svojim korenima, jer bice gusto. Treba preziveti.

#379 rory

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 16:22

Posle šestog dupliranja će biti 64 puta skuplja pa biti jeftinije da sipamo kavijar u rezervoare. Ne ide to tako. Tečne ugljovodonike možeš dobiti iz bilo čega pa i iz biomase. Na duplo i tri puta veću cenu od sadašnje alternativni načini će da procvetaju.

#380 balu

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 17:51

Posle šestog dupliranja će biti 64 puta skuplja pa biti jeftinije da sipamo kavijar u rezervoare. Ne ide to tako. Tečne ugljovodonike možeš dobiti iz bilo čega pa i iz biomase. Na duplo i tri puta veću cenu od sadašnje alternativni načini će da procvetaju.

U pravu si. Poenta je bila da vas malo shokiram. Taj moj "model" dupliranja cene svakih 10 godina nije realan. Medjutim verujem da ce u prvih 10 da se duplira, mozda i pre. To je jedini efikasan nacin da se veliki uozbilje i da krenu u ovo sto ti pricas. Tada ce obrtnici naci interes da ulazu u u ta alternativna goriva. Sirotinja raja ce naci interes da kupuje elektricne automobile.

Jedina muka je sto ce ta goriva iz biomase podici cenu hrane. Deo te biomase se predvidja i od zitarica (uglavnom kukuruza) sto bi smanjilo kolicine za stocnu hranu. Pravljenje etanola od kukuruza (bas od zrna) je vec zabrinulo strucnjake za hranu. Znam da se radilo i na industrijskom gajenju algi kao sirovine za bio dizel ali sa sadasnjom cenom nafte nije bilo profitabilno. A obrtnici nece da ulazu u nesto sto ne donosi profit. Zato je bolje biti medju prvima u ponzi shemi i profit ti je obezbedjen.

DakleM prvi potreban uslov je da cena nafte sto pre ode na nekih 200 US$. Tada bi i eksploatacija nekih nalazista postala isplativa (povecale bi se rezerve). Sa tom cenom goriva elektricni automobil bi bio primamljiviji. Svi oblici stednje energije bi postali hit. Obrtnici bi ulagali u te alge i ko zna sta jos. Medjutim moja preporuka da intenzivno obnavljate i odrzavate veze s korenima ostaje i dalje. To nije bilo zezanje.

#381 Div

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Posted 12 December 2010 - 18:11

U pravu si. Poenta je bila da vas malo shokiram. Taj moj "model" dupliranja cene svakih 10 godina nije realan. Medjutim verujem da ce u prvih 10 da se duplira, mozda i pre. To je jedini efikasan nacin da se veliki uozbilje i da krenu u ovo sto ti pricas. Tada ce obrtnici naci interes da ulazu u u ta alternativna goriva. Sirotinja raja ce naci interes da kupuje elektricne automobile.

Jedina muka je sto ce ta goriva iz biomase podici cenu hrane. Deo te biomase se predvidja i od zitarica (uglavnom kukuruza) sto bi smanjilo kolicine za stocnu hranu. Pravljenje etanola od kukuruza (bas od zrna) je vec zabrinulo strucnjake za hranu. Znam da se radilo i na industrijskom gajenju algi kao sirovine za bio dizel ali sa sadasnjom cenom nafte nije bilo profitabilno. A obrtnici nece da ulazu u nesto sto ne donosi profit. Zato je bolje biti medju prvima u ponzi shemi i profit ti je obezbedjen.

DakleM prvi potreban uslov je da cena nafte sto pre ode na nekih 200 US$. Tada bi i eksploatacija nekih nalazista postala isplativa (povecale bi se rezerve). Sa tom cenom goriva elektricni automobil bi bio primamljiviji. Svi oblici stednje energije bi postali hit. Obrtnici bi ulagali u te alge i ko zna sta jos. Medjutim moja preporuka da intenzivno obnavljate i odrzavate veze s korenima ostaje i dalje. To nije bilo zezanje.


Pa i to podizanje cene hrani nije nešto samo po sebi loše. Nije jeftina hrana svakom dostupna, mada se negde baca, troši neracionalno kao i energenti. Proizvodnja skulje hrane će biti isplativija i moći će da je proizvode i oni koji sada nemaju interesa. Isto kao i sa siromašnijim izvorima nafte, isplatila bi se eksploatacija ako bi barel bio 200-300 dolara.
Malom proizvođaču hrane u Srbiji se ne isplati proizvodnja povrće jer dolazi jeftinija iz Turske, meso je jeftinije iz Brazila i Argentine, beli luk iz kine...
Zbog te jeftinoće imamo više sirotinje, koja opet nema fajde od toga, ni tako jeftino ne može da kupi. Da je skupo, možda bi mogli, nešto da proizvedu, nešto da kupe.

#382 kiklop

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Posted 13 January 2011 - 14:51

Interesantan clanak

Secrecy By Complexity: Obfuscation in Energy Data, and The Primacy of Crude Oil

The dramatic fall of Mexican oil production, and its largest field Cantarell, is often cited as a signature example of the problems facing Non-OPEC supply. Since the production highs of 2004-2005, Mexican production has lost over 800 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) which is fairly dramatic for a country that was producing around 3.4 mbpd as recently as 5-6 years ago. But as accelerated as these declines have been in Mexico, there’s another oil producing region has seen even quicker declines. The North Sea, which comprises “United Kingdom Offshore, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands Offshore, and Germany Offshore” has just lost 20% of its production in 24 months. Daily production is down 600,000 barrels per day in that period.
...


...
Canada is worthy of discussion for another reason, however, and that’s the creeping tendency of the public energy-data agencies to engage in some some channel stuffing. In the case of Canada, the high-cost tar sands production has now been aggregated into that country’s measures of “crude oil.” While not as egregious as including ethanol into publicly released data measures of oil, the alchemy and energy inputs required to turn oily dirt into usable petroleum can hardly be deemed as conventional crude oil production. To this point, one of the core methods EIA Washington and IEA Paris have increasingly relied on in recent years–to obscure the very serious and now very real problem of oil depletion–is to include biofuels and natural gas liquids in the accounting of global oil production. The technique that both agencies use to conduct this obfuscation is a familiar one, in which the key information is aggregated (buried) into a much larger barrage of data and presentations. For a scholarly look at the methods governments use to work around their obligations to inform the public, do watch the one hour lecture that Jay Rosen gave to the World Bank earlier this year. Rosen’s deconstructions of the media have been very helpful to me, over the past two years. See his blog here: PressThink.org. Rosen describes the use of opacity as a kind of hiding in plain sight, or secrecy by complexity.
...



#383 kiklop

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 01:38

Saudi to sign nuclear deal, cut fossil fuel use

RIYADH, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia wants to cut fossil fuel use within the next several decades, it said at an industry event where nuclear reactor maker Areva (CEPFi.PA: Quote) is set to sign a major deal with a Saudi partner.

Although it sits on the world's largest oil and gas reserves, Saudi Arabia is struggling to keep up with rapidly rising power demand as petrodollars have fueled a Gulf-wide economic boom as well as a rapid population growth.

Anne Lauvergeon, chief executive of the French nuclear reactor company, told reporters that Areva will sign a partnership agreement with Saudi Arabia's Binladin Group for nuclear and solar energy. She gave no specific figure.

...


hmm

#384 kiklop

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Posted 25 January 2011 - 01:56

Here Comes $4 Gas, $5 Cups of Coffee

The final dam to stopping $150-a-barrel oil and $4-a-gallon gas is being breached, as financial regulation continues its daily erosion into worthlessness.
Watching the CFTC attempt to back up Dodd-Frank legislation since it was passed in July has been like watching salmon flop upstream as the water drains out -- it's slow, arduous and likely to lead nowhere.
It is clear now that we will instead be witness to the highest prices for commodities ever, fueled by the biggest influx of profit-driven trading and investment ever, unstanched even in the slightest by the hopes of financial regulation legislation.
...



#385 kiklop

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Posted 10 February 2011 - 17:47

WikiLeaks cables: Saudi Arabia cannot pump enough oil to keep a lid on prices

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.