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#31 Dugi

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Posted 03 February 2010 - 22:35

http://www.telegraph...o-Portugal.html
Greece's labour federation immediately called a general strike for February 24, dashing hopes that Europe's provisional backing for Greek crisis policies would restore investor confidence.

Joaquin Almunia, the EU economics commissioner, said tough measures were "extremely urgent" to prevent a further flight from Greek debt. "The huge imbalances from which the Greek economy is suffering are not sustainable in the long run. The fact of the matter is that markets are putting on pressure. This pressure cannot be ignored."


Mr Almunia said concerns have spread beyond Greece to other eurozone countries where public finances are spinning out of control, chiefly Spain and Portugal. "In these countries we have seen a constant loss of competitiveness ever since they joined the eurozone. The external financing needs are quite big," he said.

Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds jumped 21 basis points yesterday as funds switched their fire to the next "domino", questioning whether the government of Jose Socrates can deliver spending cuts without a parliamentary majority. "The lightning rod has been passed to Portugal: who is next – Spain?" asked Marc Chandler, from Brown Brothers Harriman.

George Papandreou, the Greek premier, has agreed to a rise in fuel taxes and a partial freeze in public wages to stop the country "falling off a cliff". Even this will not be enough to satisfy Brussels – itself under pressure from Germany and the European Central Bank. The EU's hard-line faction is afraid that fiscal discipline will break down altogether across "Club Med" nations unless Greece first suffers public flagellation.

Brussels invoked new EU powers under Article 121 of the Lisbon Treaty, allowing it to reshape the structure of pensions, healthcare, labour markets and private commerce – a step-change in the level of EU intrusion.

The EU told Greece to "spell out the implementation calendar of (budget) measures within one month". Athens must be ready to "adopt additional measures if needed" and to submit quarterly updates.

To cap the humiliation, the EU is taking Greece to court over past falsification of budget figures. "This is the first time we have established such an intense and quasi-permanent system of monitoring," said Mr Almunia. The Greek Left said the measures reduce Greece to an economic protectorate

The gap between what EU demands and what ordinary Greeks seem willing to accept is so wide that it may prove extremely hard for Mr Papandreou carry the country. The top union bloc said the government had "succumbed to the will of the markets" but would now have to face the stronger will of the people.

Samir Patel, from the consultancy BH2, said austerity plans will "almost certainly send Greece into a deflationary spiral", and tip its banking system "into the Mediterranean Sea". Greece is being told to carry out IMF-style retrenchment without the IMF cure of devaluation.

One banker described events as eerily similar to market confusion before the failure of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008, this time involving sovereign states rather than banks. It is assumed that Europe must in the end rescue Greece, but Germany is so far sticking to its "no bail-out" mantra and nobody knows for sure how the drama will end.

The legal and political structure is simply not ready to cope with an escalation of the crisis and the problems spreading to Spain, should that occur. Spain's budget deficit reached 11.4pc last year, and is on a worrying trajectory for a country that has lost so much intra-EMU competitiveness and cannot let the currency take the strain. Spanish bank BBVA shocked markets last week with a 94pc fall in profits, largely due to property losses. Spain's mortgage association said days later that the "real estate sector is bankrupt" and threatened the financial system.

Spain's total public and private debt is over 300pc of GDP, much higher than Greek debt. With unemployment already above 4m – or 4.5m including regional jobless schemes – Madrid will not react well to the sort of austerity imposed on Athens. Fears that the slow fuse on Spain's political crisis may soon detonate a timebomb is creeping into the markets.

#32 Dugi

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Posted 05 February 2010 - 04:06

http://www.telegraph...d-Portugal.html
Julian Callow from Barclays Capital said the EU may to need to invoke emergency treaty powers under Article 122 to halt the contagion, issuing an EU guarantee for Greek debt. “If not contained, this could result in a `Lehman-style’ tsunami spreading across much of the EU.”

Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring bankruptcy risk on Portuguese debt surged 28 basis points on Thursday to a record 222 on reports that Jose Socrates was about to resign as prime minister after failing to secure enough votes in parliament to carry out austerity measures.
...


In Spain, default insurance surged 16 basis points after Nobel economist Paul Krugman said that “the biggest trouble spot isn’t Greece, it’s Spain”. He blamed EMU’s one-size-fits-all monetary system, which has left the country with no defence against an adverse shock. The Madrid’s IBEX index fell 6pc.

#33 dekss

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 12:52

čini mi se zanimljivo:

The Dynamite Prize in Economics.

The prize will be be awarded to the three economists who contributed most to enabling the Global Financial Collapse (GFC), or more figuratively, to the three economists who contributed most to blowing up the global economy.

#34 brusli

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 15:17

Jel mozemo i mi da glasamo :ph34r: ?

Evo ja svoj glas dajem Grinspenu...

#35 dekss

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 15:37

Jel mozemo i mi da glasamo :ph34r: ?

Evo ja svoj glas dajem Grinspenu...


ma možeš, naravno.

al' nije on, jadan, za sve kriv :)

evo i celog spiska:

Spoiler! --Click here to view--


#36 Kaplow

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 21:29

Through his textbook Economics: An Introductory Analysis (19 English language editions and translated into 40 languages), he popularized neoclassical economics, contributing more than any other economist to its diffusion and thereby to the deregulation of financial markets which made possible the GFC.


A kako je tacno deregulacija izazvala krizu, nikako da neko objasni.

Edited by Kaplow, 16 February 2010 - 21:30.


#37 brusli

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Posted 16 February 2010 - 23:47

A kako je tacno deregulacija izazvala krizu, nikako da neko objasni.

deregulacija -> mnogo spekulacija -> veliiiiki balon -> SEKA

#38 Kaplow

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Posted 17 February 2010 - 07:23

Ali analiticki nikako da se odmakne od toga.

Ja pitam konkretno: sta je deregulisano, koji sektor i kako, na koji nacin je to uticalo na spekulacije,i kako su baloni usled deregulacije pukli... Ne mora niko da pise, samo neka okaci link. Ja se ubih mesecima da nadjem, i nista. Sve prazne price i ideoloske magle.

#39 dekss

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Posted 17 February 2010 - 07:50

izvedeni finansijski instrumenti

#40 brusli

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Posted 17 February 2010 - 10:19

Sam koren svega u finansijskom smislu je ukidanje Glass–Steagall zakona 1999, time su banke definitivno pustene sa lanca u zakonodavnom smislu i dobismo ovo danas...

http://en.wikipedia....ss–Steagall_Act

Inace, on je uveden kao posledica Velike Depresije, koja je potpuno ekvivalentno nastala kao i SEKA, znaci "vesele" 20-te i baloncina koja je tada naduvana...

Pored toga danas je sve to prosireno novim "finansijskim proizvodima" tzv derivatima, tim potpuno deregulisanim trzistem, koje bog otac nije kotrolisao.

I sada fakticki imamo deflaciju, potpuno ekvivalentno kao u Velikoj Depresiji, koju ovi na vlasti maskiraju enormnim fiskalnim "podsticajima" tj inflacijom, a posledice niko zivi ne moze da predvidi.

U sustini SEKA = Velika Depresija manje vise...
Slicni uzroci (deregulacija fin sektora) i slicne posledice...

U stvari deregulacija neminovno dovodi do balona, jer onda ne postoji sila koja bi se suprotstavila prirodnoj teznji kapitala da se siri. Sto veca deregulacija veci i balon...

#41 dekss

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Posted 18 February 2010 - 21:08

evo jednog zanimljivog grafikona (u pitanju je SAD privreda):

Posted Image

pitanje koje se nameće je: da li će se trend nastaviti?
i čemu ovo vodi?

#42 dekss

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Posted 19 February 2010 - 15:13

evo nekih "optimističnih" predvidjanja

Barclays and Bank of America see looming oil crunch

For oil markets, it as if the Great Recession never happened. Surging demand in China, India and the Middle East is making up for decline in the debt-crippled West, ensuring another global crunch within three or four years.

Bank of America and Barclays Capital, two leading oil traders, have told clients to brace for crude above $100 (£64) a barrel by next year, before it pushes relentlessly higher over the decade. This is a stark contrast from recessions in the 1980s and 1990s, when it took years to work off excess drilling capacity built in the boom.

"Oil has the potential to flirt with $100 this year. We forecast an average price of $137 by 2015," said Amrita Sen, an oil expert at BarCap. The price has doubled to $78 in the last year.

"The groundwork for the next sustained step up in oil prices is now almost complete. Global spare capacity is likely to be reduced to low levels within a relatively short time. The global economic crisis has postponed, but not cancelled, a crunch which would otherwise be starting to bite now," said Barclays.

Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said crude may touch $105 next year, with $150 in sight by 2014. "Approximately 1.7bn consumers in emerging markets with a per capita income of $5,000 to $20,000 are eagerly waiting to buy cars, air-conditioning units, or white goods," he said.

China has overtaken the US as the world's top car market. Mr Blanch expects oil demand to rise by a further 2.8m barrels per day (bpd) in China and 2.5m bpd in India by 2015, when two giants will be absorbing the lion's share of Gulf output [osim ako se nešto ne desi]. Consumption in the West has already peaked and will fall each year as populations shrink and we waste less, but the West no longer sets the price. Global use will increase by 8.8m bpd to 95m bpd [ako bude toliko].

Supply is scarce. Sir Richard Branson warned this month that the world faces 'peak oil' within five years. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did," he said.

Mr Blanch said output from non-OPEC states is falling by 4.9pc each year, despite Russia's reserves. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates can plug a quarter of the gap, but global spare capacity must soon drop to wafer-thin levels – leaving us vulnerable to the sort of "super-spike" seen in 2008. The wildcard is whether Iraq can quadruple output to Saudi levels this decade, a target dismissed by most analysts as pie-in-the-sky.

Painfully high prices are needed to unlock fresh supplies as reserves are depleted in the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Deep-water rigs off Brazil are costly and require drilling far below the seabed. Canadian oil sands and US biofuels have break-even costs near $70. While the US, UK, and the Far East are turning to nuclear power, it takes a decade to build reactors. "peak uranium" lurks in any case.

The oil spike brought the global economy to a shuddering halt in 2008. This time the crunch may hit before the West has fully recovered. Whatever happens, the US, Europe and Japan will soon transfer a chunk of their wealth to the petro-powers. It is a new world order.



#43 dekss

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Posted 23 February 2010 - 10:17

čini mi se zanimljivo:

The Dynamite Prize in Economics.

The prize will be be awarded to the three economists who contributed most to enabling the Global Financial Collapse (GFC), or more figuratively, to the three economists who contributed most to blowing up the global economy.


evo i rezultata glasanja:

Greenspan wins Dynamite Prize in Economics

Alan Greenspan has been judged the economist most responsible for causing the Global Financial Crisis. He, and 2ndand 3rd place finishers Milton Friedman and Larry Summers, have won the first–and hopefully last—Dynamite Prize in Economics.

In awarding the Prize, Edward Fullbrook, editor of the Real World Economics Review, noted that “They have been judged to be the three economists most responsible for the Global Financial Crisis. More figuratively, they are the three economists most responsible for blowing up the global economy.”

The prize was developed by the Real World Economics Review Blog in response to attempts by economists to evade responsibility for the crisis by calling it an unpredictable, “Black Swan” event. In reality, the public perception that economic theories and policies helped cause the crisis is correct.

The prize winners were determined by a poll in which over 7,500 people voted—most of whom were economists themselves from the 11,000 subscribers to the real-world economics review . Each voter could vote for a maximum of three economists. In total 18,531 votes were cast.

Fullbrook cautioned that not all economics and economists were bad. “Only ‘neoclassical’ economists caused the GFC. There are other approaches to economics that are more realistic—or at least less delusional—but these have been suppressed in universities and excluded from government policy making.”

“Some of these rebels also did what neoclassical economists falsely claimed was impossible: they foresaw the Global Financial Crisis and warned the public of its approach. In their honour, I now call for nominations for the inaugural Revere Award in Economics, named in honour of Paul Revere and his famous ride. It will be awarded to the 3 economists who saw the GFC coming, and whose work is most likely to prevent another GFC in the future.”

Dynamite Prize Citations

Alan Greenspan (5,061 votes): As Chairman of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, Alan Greenspan both led the over expansion of money and credit that created the bubble that burst and aggressively promoted the view that financial markets are naturally efficient and in no need of regulation.

Milton Friedman (3,349 votes): Friedman propagated the delusion, through his misunderstanding of the scientific method, that an economy can be accurately modeled using counterfactual propositions about its nature. This, together with his simplistic model of money, encouraged the development of fantasy-based theories of economics and finance that facilitated the Global Financial Collapse.

Larry Summers (3,023 votes): As US Secretary of the Treasury (formerly an economist at Harvard and the World Bank), Summers worked successfully for the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, which since the Great Crash of 1929 had kept deposit banking separate from casino banking. He also helped Greenspan and Wall Street torpedo efforts to regulate derivatives.

In total 18,531 votes were cast. The vote totals for the other finalists were:
Fischer Black and Myron Scholes 2016
Eugene Fama 1668
Paul Samuelson 1291
Robert Lucas 912
Richard Portes 433
Edward Prescott and Finn E. Kydland 403
Assar Lindbeck 375



#44 dekss

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Posted 24 February 2010 - 16:57

zanimljiva analiza:

Japan – Past the Point of No Return


obratite pažnju na deo u vezi sa demografijom, jer čini mi se da je Srbija rame uz rame sa Japanom po tom pitanju...

#45 liberty2010

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Posted 07 April 2010 - 23:06

A drzavna regulacija je donela ovo: http://www.cbsnews.c...in6371455.shtml
Bacena lova(opet).