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2010 Silly Season Round Up Part 1:
The Known KnownsSubmitted by David Emmett on Thu, 2009-08-06 14:32.
Although MotoGP's traditional silly season - the point at which teams and riders decide who will be going where next year - is currently being blocked by one man (a certain Spanish rider by the name of Jorge Lorenzo), it is still time to start taking stock of the current state of the market, and marking out who will be staying and who will be going. Over the next few days MotoGPMatters.com will be running a series of articles on the state of the silly season, to help you keep track. All the official signings will be recorded on the 2010 MotoGP rider line up page, which will be updated as and when contracts are actually confirmed.
So far, that list is pretty short. Only Valentino Rossi, Casey Stoner and Marco Simoncelli have confirmed contracts for 2010, the rest is all up in the air. Rossi is halfway through his two-year contract with Yamaha, and is likely to extend that at the end of next season; Stoner has exercised the option he had to remain with Ducati for next year, though his disappointment with Yamaha and Honda for not offering him a factory ride at the end of 2006 has a role to play in the decision; and Simoncelli is the first victim of the rookie rule, the Italian expected to go to a factory team, but being prevented by the rule barring new entries into the class from signing directly with a factory team and forcing them to serve an apprenticeship year - and help bring some much-needed sponsorship into - a satellite team.
Though the list of confirmed riders is short, there are still plenty of things we are sure about for the 2010 MotoGP season. The first of these is the entry of the Aspar team into the paddock, taking over the Ducati left vacant by the surprise withdrawal of Sete Gibernau's Grupo Francisco Hernando squad. Aspar has dominated the lower classes, Julian Simon taking the team's 100th victory at Donington at the end of July, and has been trying to break into the MotoGP class for the past couple of years. Although no rider has yet been confirmed for the Aspar squad, what we can be sure of is that both the rider and the title sponsor will be Spanish, and possibly even Valencian. Aspar has been trying to persuade his protege Alvaro Bautista to join him in MotoGP, but Bautista is believed to be wary of the career-wrecking ability of the Ducati.
Whether he goes to Aspar or not, Alvaro Bautista is certain to be one of a number of rookies entering the class. Bautista will be joining current arch rival Marco Simoncelli in MotoGP, perpetuating the Italian-Spanish rivalry that exists at all levels of MotoGP. Hector Barbera is almost certain to join Bautista and Simoncelli, the only question being where, though his name is being touted around a number of destinations in the paddock.
To make way for the arrival of these new riders, an exodus of older names is also on the cards. At least one former World Superbike rider is certain to return to the series, and it is likely there will be more than one rider to return to the WSBK fold.
The other near certainty is the end of Kawasaki's participation in MotoGP. The factory only acceded to Dorna's request to continue in the series after coming under serious pressure (and implied legal threats) from Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta to remain, but after the promised year, Kawasaki is likely to be gone. Their withdrawal is doubly tragic, as the atmosphere in the team is exceptionally cheerful, everyone working both harder and probably better than ever, partly as a result of Marco Melandri's remarkable performance on the Hayate.
The final certainty we have about the 2010 season is that Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa will not be in the same team. Lorenzo is yet to decide between Honda and Yamaha - though highly reliable sources say that the Spaniard will be staying with the Fiat Yamaha squad - but if he switches to Honda, Dani Pedrosa will leave. Pedrosa has repeatedly denied that his decision will be based on what is best for Dani Pedrosa, not reliant on what Jorge Lorenzo does, but Lorenzo would not join Honda without a guarantee of equal treatment at the very least, and Pedrosa would not accept anything other than a guaranteed number 1 position in the team.
More of that tomorrow, though, when we move from the known knowns to the known unknowns, to use Donald Rumsfeld's awkward yet supremely useful phrase.
2010 Silly Season Round Up Part 2:
The Known UnknownsSubmitted by David Emmett on Fri, 2009-08-07 13:15.
Yesterday, we covered the things we know for sure about the MotoGP riders market in 2010. So today, we turn our attention to the known unknowns, the riders and teams that we are fairly sure are going to be in MotoGP but with no certainty as to how or where or with whom. Naturally, that lack of certainty means that what follows is partly speculation, but is based on information which has so far proven to be reliable for the most part. If you're fond of a flutter, it might be worth taking a shot on some of what follows, but I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on any of it.
The biggest dependency in the MotoGP Silly Season so far was touched upon yesterday. Jorge Lorenzo is the juggernaut stopped at the crossroads, holding up the traffic behind him, deciding whether to take the fork to Honda or to continue on along the road with Yamaha. The news emerging from various sources in the media and the paddock is that Lorenzo is most likely to stay the course with Yamaha and demonstrate that he can beat Valentino Rossi on equal machinery.
If, as we expect, Lorenzo stays, then this will precipitate a host of changes through the rest of the field. The most significant of these, as we covered yesterday, will be Dani Pedrosa. With the option of a move to Yamaha effectively blocked - Yamaha could neither afford nor would they want three of the top four riders in the world, as they have their hands full already just handling two of them - Pedrosa will most likely remain at Repsol Honda, perhaps with some extra guarantees of performance from HRC extracted with some extra pressure from Repsol, who grow tired of pouring many millions of euros into the factory Honda squad without seeing the desired return (a Spanish MotoGP champion) on their investment.
Andrea Dovizioso is likely to retain his seat alongside Dani Pedrosa, his hand having been strengthened by his victory at Donington Park just a couple of weeks ago. But as HRC is quietly accumulating talent in the background, with Marco Simoncelli already signed for Gresini next year and one or two other names already popping up on the HRC radar, Dovi will most likely be given another one year contract for just the 2010 season, so that HRC can reshuffle its cards at the end of next year. HRC's hands are also tied by the limited options available. Yamaha has successfully corner a sizable chunk of the talent market, and the only rider eligible and qualified to move up to the Repsol ride would be Marco Melandri, who has proved again this year that he can still ride, just as long as what he's riding wasn't built in Bologna.
With the major factory rides more or less tied up, MotoGP's most desirable destination right now is the Tech 3 Yamaha team. The Yamaha M1 is clearly the pick of the bunch in terms of performance, and the level of support Yamaha is giving to Tech 3 makes the satellite team's bikes much closer to the factory M1s than, for example, the satellite-spec Hondas. This makes the Tech 3 team a talented rider's best hope of a podium on a non-factory machine and the list of interested parties is very long indeed.
Though Tech 3 has two seats to offer, only one of those is decided at the sole discretion of team boss Herve Poncharal. The other belongs to Yamaha Japan, and the factory decides who to put there. Right now, that seat is held by Colin Edwards, and his prospects for remaining are looking strong. With Lorenzo likely to stay at Yamaha, Ben Spies' route into the Yamaha factory team has been closed off. With Spies probably out of the equation for this year (more on that tomorrow), the pressure on Edwards diminishes, and the Texan's strong results and highly regarded bike development skills are likely to secure him the Japanese seat at Tech 3. According to Motorcycle News' Matt Birt, no decision will be finalized until some time in October, but Edwards probably has little to fear. The other seat is wide open, though, and we will cover the options Poncharal has tomorrow.
At Ducati, a similar situation applies. Casey Stoner is locked in for 2010, and Ducati have an option on Nicky Hayden for next year as well. As Hayden's fortunes have started to improve - at Donington, Hayden said that he was finally starting to use his own settings as a base and not rely on settings taken from Stoner - so the Kentuckian has looked more likely to stay. Hayden has certainly looked happier at the last two rounds than he did at the beginning of the season, and Ducati has also shown ever more faith in the American. With Hayden 848 replicas selling out almost as soon as they were announced, Ducati understands the marketing power that the Kentucky Kid has in the USA, one of its most important markets. Ducati has until September 1st to exercise the option they have on Hayden, which would make for a repeat of last year's high-profile announcement at Indianapolis.
The other certainty at Ducati is Pramac's Mika Kallio. The Finnish rookie has impressed Ducati bosses with the speed with which he adapted to the fearsome GP9, and despite his somewhat erratic results - varying anywhere from a strong 8th to being out of the points - Ducati see a lot of potential in Kallio. The Finn is almost certain to stay with the Pramac satellite squad for another year, and have another chance to impress Ducati enough to be moved up to the factory team in 2011.
A year ago, Marco Melandri (whose birthday it is today) was a broken man, with doubts hanging over his future. But his frankly brilliant performance on an underpowered, undeveloped Kawasaki has regained him the respect of the fans he brought to the brink of despair when he was on the Ducati. Although Kawasaki will be gone from MotoGP next season, Melandri has done more than enough to earn himself another chance in MotoGP.
His most likely destination is the Gresini Honda garage, alongside 250cc prodigy and fellow countryman Marco Simoncelli. But this "dream team" in terms of sponsorship is likely to leave Fausto Gresini with a major problem. The Italian will probably only receive one factory-spec RC212V to run from Honda, along with one less competitive satellite-spec bike. Does he give the factory bike to Simoncelli, the man with the HRC backing but still just a rookie in the class, or does he give the bike to Melandri, a proven winner for the team and on the bike?
While Gresini wrestles with an embarrassment of riches, the Suzuki squad is in more difficult straits. On the one hand, the Rizla Suzuki team has an exemption from the Rookie Rule, allowing riders entering the class for the first time to join the squad despite it being a factory operation. But on the other, Suzuki have consistently failed to produce a competitive machine, their bikes never able to build on the form they so often show in pre-season testing. This latter problem has caused Loris Capirossi to demand that Suzuki step up their efforts, or the Italian veteran will walk away from the team. Suzuki is keen to retain Capirex, though, and if they can provide him with the guarantees he wants about the competitiveness of the bike, he is almost certain to stay for a final year before retiring.
Who Capirossi will be sharing the garage with is still open to debate. The hot favorite is Spanish star Alvaro Bautista, who is certain to move up to MotoGP, but whose options are slightly limited. Bautista has two main choices: join the Rizla Suzuki team and enjoy the benefits of being on a factory team; or stay with Jorge Martinez and Aspar to ride the single Ducati the Spanish-based team will be fielding next year. Bautista has not been keen to ride the Ducati, having seen the bike disfigure the careers of so many others, but he also knows Martinez and the Aspar team very well, and knows that they are a quality outfit. In the end, the lure of factory backing is likely to prove too much for Bautista to resist, and the Spaniard will probably end up in blue next year.
The last of the probables is the man with the money, Hungarian superstar Gabor Talmacsi. The former 125cc World Champion has learned quickly on his limited outings on the Honda RC212V, and has closed the gap to the rest of the field. With Talmacsi bringing hard cash in the underfunded Team Scot, through his high public profile in his native Hungary, the odds of Talmacsi holding on to the Scot Honda ride for 2010 are very strong.
Of course, this leaves the team with a problem, as Hiroshi Aoyama, currently leading the 250cc title chase on the Scot Honda, looks set to make the jump up to MotoGP next season. But the future of Aoyama, along with others such as Toni Elias, Chris Vermeulen, Randy de Puniet and James Toseland, is far less clear cut, so we will save that for tomorrow, when we will be discussing the unknown unknowns, or some of the more interesting, if not to say bizarre permutations of riders and bikes.
2010 Silly Season Round Up Part 3:
The Unknown UnknownsSubmitted by David Emmett on Sat, 2009-08-08 12:26.
In the final chapter of our summer break round up of the MotoGP season, we turn towards the unknown. After our discussions of the things we know for sure, and the things which are extremely probable, we stray from the path of solid research, head down the trail of the likely, making a left turn into the tangled brush and undergrowth of the possible and onwards to wishful thinking and the frankly bizarre. Once past the certain and the obvious, the options become more open, more varied and more improbable. Whereas you could have safely placed a small wager on the rider movements discussed yesterday, the options presented below are a pretty good way of losing your money.
We shall start our journey with the most likely scenarios, and descend into the unknown from there. Of the riders we have not yet discussed, Randy de Puniet has the best chance of securing a decent ride for next year. Since his switch to the spec Bridgestone tires, the Frenchman has been transformed from the man most likely to crash to a podium hero at Donington, and his stock has risen enormously.
De Puniet is currently in negotiations with his current team boss Lucio Cecchinello about signing for LCR Honda again for next year, but the Frenchman's main demand is not money but equipment. De Puniet wants a more competitive bike, and though Cecchinello would dearly like to oblige, that depends both on the team's ability to raise the necessary funds and HRC's willingness to supply a better bike.
And so de Puniet is also talking to - who else? - Tech 3's Herve Poncharal. At Tech 3 the Frenchman would be assured of excellent support and his best shot at more regular podium appearances. The only point of contention would be money, and unless de Puniet can bring extra sponsorship dollars to the Tech 3 team, his salary demands would have to remain modest.
Helping to keep down Herve Poncharal's wage bill is the fact that competition for the final Tech 3 seat is pretty fierce. Current incumbent James Toseland is still in with a shout, and the money he brings from Dorna for the BBC TV deal leaves the Englishman well in contention. But with young Britons such as Bradley Smith, Danny Webb and Scott Redding on the way and just a couple of seasons from joining the premier class, the need for a British rider in MotoGP is diminished, and Dorna may feel inclined to reduce its contribution to Toseland's cause. If Toseland does lose the Yamaha seat his most likely destination is World Superbikes, where he has options with a host of top teams.
Another former World Superbike rider is also in contention for Toseland's seat at Tech 3. Chris Vermeulen's place at Rizla Suzuki is looking precarious, though it is by no means certain that he won't be back there. But Vermeulen has also expressed his frustration at the lack of progress from the Hamamatsu factory in producing a competitive bike, and so may decide his interests are best served by jumping to a different manufacturer and hoping to score well enough at a satellite team that he will be offered promotion to the factory squad. If not, Vermeulen, like Toseland, will return to World Superbikes, and have another chance of securing the title there.
The other group hoping to take the Tech 3 ride is the Spanish contingent. Alvaro Bautista has been linked to the ride, though the Spaniard looks much more likely to go to Suzuki or possibly Aspar Ducati next year. But fellow Spaniards Toni Elias and rookie Hector Barbera are also serious candidates to take the seat. Elias is certain to be dropped from the Gresini Honda squad at the end of the season and is scraping around for a replacement rider. As a former race winner, he should be able to secure a seat, but with competition this intense he could find himself losing out. Tech 3 and the Pramac squad are just about Elias' final hopes, else he could find himself moving either across to World Superbikes or down to Moto2 if he can't find a ride soon.
Hector Barbera is the rookie with the weakest bargaining position, though he may be able to bring sponsorship to any team he joins. Poncharal has acknowledged that he has had talks with the Spaniard, but Barbera's most probable destination is the Aspar Ducati. The team will most likely be backed by a sponsors from the Spanish province of Valencia, and as a native of the region Barbera would be an attractive proposition. Of course, if Aspar's preferred choice of rider Alvaro Bautista takes the seat, then Barbera could find himself struggling to find another ride.
At the bottom of Jorge Martinez' rather short list of candidates to ride his new Aspar Ducati is Alex Debon. The 250 veteran has been on the verge of breaking into the MotoGP class a couple of times, but has never quite made it. If Aspar runs out of options elsewhere, Debon's Valencian roots will help him secure the seat ahead of non Spanish riders.
After Yuki Takahashi lost the Scot Honda ride to Gabor Talmacsi in mid-season, the ascension of Hiroshi Aoyama to the MotoGP class became a great deal more likely. Aoyama is having his best year ever in the 250 class, leading the championship and in with a very strong chance of clinching the title this year. The Japanese rider has been tipped to progress to the MotoGP class for a few years now and many in the paddock were surprised that Takahashi was picked ahead of Aoyama at the end of last year. With no Japanese rider currently in the series, the Japanese factories - more specifically, Honda - are likely to push hard for a seat for Aoyama somewhere.
His most likely destination is either LCR Honda (as De Puniet's replacement if the Frenchman goes to Tech 3) or possibly inside Scot Honda. Gabor Talmacsi is almost certain to remain at Scot Honda, but Dorna and Honda may find enough money to fund an extra bike for the Japanese rider. Honda's motive would be to have a Japanese rider in the series, while Dorna will want to compensate for the loss of Kawasaki and keep 18 riders on the grid.
Alex de Angelis' future is among the most uncertain in the MotoGP series at the moment. The man currently riding the second Gresini Honda will be out of a ride at the end of the year, and with very limited options. He recently told the Italian press that he was close to a deal with Pramac Ducati, but since then, no more news has been heard. His manager, Carlo Pernat, was seen recently at the Misano round of World Superbikes, but de Angelis vehemently denied he was interested in a ride in the rival series. De Angelis may not have much choice, though the man from San Marino may instead choose to move down to the Moto2 class, where his experience with four strokes could give him an advantage over the 250 riders in the first year of the class and put him in the frame for a championship.
While de Angelis' future in MotoGP is uncertain, Ben Spies is almost certain to move up to MotoGP. Herve Poncharal put Spies' chances of being in the series in 2011 as "99.999%" but that still leaves the question of next season. If Spies fails to secure the World Superbike title, then the consensus is that the Texan will remain another year in the series for a second shot at the championship, but after that he is certain to make the switch.
The question is, with whom? Yamaha is still the odds-on favorite, with the seat currently occupied by Colin Edwards being reserved for Spies. But with Valentino Rossi and Jorge Lorenzo likely to be hogging the seats at the factory Yamaha squad, Spies could be tempted to look elsewhere. The most obvious alternative would be Suzuki, though Rizla Suzuki boss has refused to be drawn on whether they are attempting to attract the man they rejected last year back to the fold. Spies himself, though, may feel that Suzuki is a bad bet, with the bike failing to perform and the factory at the top of the list of manufacturers most likely to pull out of MotoGP in the near future.
Honda would be an alternative for Spies, but at the moment, HRC doesn't have a suitable destination for the Texan. That could be remedied relatively easily if HRC smelled a chance to get their revenge on Yamaha, and sign the one rider from outside the series thought capable of challenging the Fantastic Four currently dominating the series.
Then, of course, there's Ducati. Livio Suppo recently told Motorcycle News that they were very interested in Spies and were keeping a seat free for him at the Pramac squad, but Ducati continues to suffer from the reputation the Desmosedici has for being impossible to ride. Spies is unlikely to want to risk his reputation aboard a bike that he has no guarantees of being able to get to perform. Suppo's comments seem more like angling rather than a calculated and serious approach to Spies.
There is one final rider who could also make his way into the MotoGP series. Swiss 250cc rider Thomas Luthi has made no secret of his ambition to make it into the premier class, and his Emmi Caffe Latte team is also keen to make the switch, team boss Daniel Epp saying so to the press at every opportunity. The problem, as ever, is one of equipment, and until the manufacturers start making more machinery available - either as complete bikes, or just leasing engines which they could do under a recent proposal made by the MSMA and due for further discussion at Indianapolis - then Luthi's options, like those of many other riders keen to take a shot at the class, will remain very limited indeed.
Yet help could be on the horizon, and coming from Luthi's native Switzerland. Former MuZ, Kawasaki and Ilmor designer Eskil Suter has announced that he is currently building a new bike, powered by a 240 horsepower V4 engine. The engine, Suter has been keen to emphasize, has nothing to do with the Ilmor power plant, and has been designed completely from scratch. Suter will be embarking on this project together with Jean Christophe Ponsson and the Gil Motor Sport team, currently racing in the World Supersport series. The project is due to be finalized on September 30th, and Ponsson and Suter have presented their plans to Dorna already.
But plans are not enough, as has been made amply obvious many times before. The main problem is one of money, of course, with designing, building and developing a racing motorcycle a very expensive business indeed. There are also worries about the likely performance of the bike itself, though. The projected power output - 240 bhp, according to Suter - would make it the most powerful bike on the grid by a significant margin, but that power may not be enough. The Swiss designer's previous projects - the Ilmor chassis, the early Kawasaki - suffered problems with chassis stiffness and weight distribution, and were incredibly difficult to set up and make competitive. Suter will undoubtedly have learned a great deal in the intervening period, but the question is whether it will be enough to make the difference between being several seconds off the pace and close enough to the rest to attract the necessary millions in sponsorship.
Of course, much of the above is all based on speculation, hearsay, rumors and guesswork, but until Jorge Lorenzo signs with Yamaha, that's all we have to go on. The 2010 MotoGP grid could turn out completely differently, but right now it's too early to tell. We'll be keeping track of the official signings over on our 2010 MotoGP rider line up page, which we'll be updating regularly. Bookmark that page and check back regularly if you want to know who will definitely be going where next year. Meanwhile, we shall be keeping up with the rumors and speculation on our news pages.
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